Pantera Capital: Hyperliquid's potential addressable market daily trading volume is approximately $100 trillion, with regulation remaining the biggest risk

According to a post by the cryptocurrency venture capital fund Pantera Capital, Hyperliquid's potential addressable market size is approximately $100 trillion in nominal daily trading volume, which includes about $200 billion in 0DTE options and leveraged ETF trading, around $2 trillion in commodity derivatives trading, and approximately $8 trillion in foreign exchange derivatives trading, which is currently almost entirely off-chain.

Pantera stated that if Hyperliquid can consistently capture a low single-digit share of the aforementioned comprehensive trading volume, its revenue potential could reach up to five times the current level. It is estimated that if the HIP-3 market is calculated at an annualized nominal trading volume of $36.5 trillion and captures a 1% market share, under the assumption of a 2 basis points comprehensive fee rate and a 50% Hyperliquid economic split, Hyperliquid could generate approximately $3.7 billion in revenue.

However, Pantera also pointed out that regulation is the biggest risk facing Hyperliquid. Perpetual contracts are not yet fully open in the United States, and if the U.S. pushes for the legalization of related products and launches regulated platforms in the future, Hyperliquid may face more intense competition, and some U.S. user trading volume may also shift to compliant venues. Pantera also believes that Hyperliquid may eventually launch a regulated version for the U.S. market, similar to other platforms.