Gray: If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, Bitcoin may have already hit bottom

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, stated that there are currently two main viewpoints in the market regarding when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the "four-year cycle," and the other views Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors. The "four-year cycle" viewpoint holds that the halving event remains the core driving factor of the Bitcoin price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin typically bottoms about a year after the cycle peak and approximately 2.5 years after the halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of about 80%. According to this pattern, Bitcoin may still decline further this time and form a bottom in September or October.

The other viewpoint suggests that Bitcoin prices will be influenced more by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, similar to other major assets. In past Bitcoin bear markets, there has usually been a slowdown in economic growth or an increase in real interest rates, and this decline is also occurring against a backdrop of rising interest rate expectations and increasing real rates. Pandl indicated that he aligns more with the macro-driven perspective. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin prices may have already bottomed.