Mizuho: The Clarity Act may long-term or exacerbate competition in stablecoins, negatively impacting Circle

Mizuho analysts stated that if the Clarity Act, a U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, is passed, it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, but the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reasoning is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating the commodification of stablecoins and eroding the revenue space of Circle's USDC.

Mizuho believes that the main pressure Circle is currently facing comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is supported by an alliance of over 140 financial, technology, and cryptocurrency companies, including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains about 38% of USDC reserve earnings, Open USD adopts a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve earnings to distributors while retaining only a small management fee. Analysts also pointed out that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD, which may give it stronger bargaining power when renegotiating revenue-sharing agreements with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties may be renegotiated as early as next month.