Data: Polymarket "The next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026" probability currently reported at 61%, up 51% in 24 hours

The PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "the next Claude Opus model being released on July 23, 2026" on Polymarket is currently reported at 61%, up 51% in the last 24 hours. In addition, the probability of "being released before July 24" is currently reported at 9%; the probability of "being released before July 25" is currently reported at 5%.

This event will settle based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made publicly available. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be open to the public (including public testing or open waiting lists). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not included, and the final settlement will primarily rely on official information from Anthropic.