Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: Senate Prioritizes Other Bills, Probability of Passing the Clarity Act Drops to 37%, Raising Institutional Concerns

Agenda Marginalization and Negotiation Stalemate: Passage Rate Plummets to 37%

The "Clarity Act," originally highly anticipated by the market and aimed at establishing clear regulatory boundaries for digital assets in the United States, is now mired in the legislative process in Congress.

According to the latest Wall Street analysis reports and real-time data from prediction markets, the likelihood of the bill passing a Senate vote this year is significantly declining, with the probability of passage by the end of the year dropping from a high point to just 37%. The main reason is that the Senate has prioritized other urgent traditional bills with its limited agenda before the summer recess, causing delays in the scheduling of the crypto regulatory framework.

Core Disagreements Difficult to Resolve: Ethical Provisions, DeFi, and Stablecoin Yield Tug-of-War

The fundamental reason for the slow progress of the bill lies in the deep-seated interests pulling between the two parties in Congress and traditional financial regulatory agencies.

Currently, negotiations within the Senate are at a deep stalemate on several key issues:

• Conflicts of Interest and Ethical Provisions: There is a significant divide between the two parties regarding whether to restrict federal officials from issuing or holding specific digital assets;

• Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML): Regulators insist that decentralized protocols bear the responsibility for comprehensive KYC, while the industry generally believes this is technically unfeasible;

• Stablecoin Yields and Traditional Banking Defenses: Provisions allowing stablecoin issuers or trading platforms to distribute yield rewards to users have faced strong resistance from commercial banking groups.

Secondary Disasters in Institutional Adoption: Incremental Demand May Be Intercepted by "Traditional Infrastructure"

Analyst teams have issued warnings in their reports that every day of delay in the approval of top-level bills like the "Clarity Act" causes profound and irreversible damage to the native crypto public chain ecosystem.

As the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and enterprise-level blockchain applications explode in 2026, traditional financial institutions' hard demand for on-chain technology has not ceased. If public crypto networks remain in a gray area due to a lack of legal clarity, these newly added trillion-dollar tokenized assets and applications will ultimately be absorbed by existing traditional financial permissioned ledgers or centralized clearing infrastructures, rather than flowing into decentralized public crypto networks (such as Ethereum, Solana, etc.).

Market Growing Pains During Compliance Vacuum

Based on the trends in Congress at the end of July, the crypto industry is experiencing growing pains transitioning from "policy dividend expectations" to "legislative realities." During the compliance vacuum caused by the stagnation of the "Clarity Act," publicly traded companies and Wall Street institutions will have to adopt a more cautious approach when allocating crypto assets. For the Web3 ecosystem seeking long-term institutional funding, breaking the congressional negotiation stalemate and facilitating compromises on compliance frameworks will directly determine the valuation ceiling of the global digital asset market in the second half of 2026.

Source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto Concept Stock Information Database, compiled based on announcements from publicly listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents from last weekend.