Vaulted CEO: Quantum computing may "end" BTC in the next 4 years

According to Forbes, Vaulted CEO David McAlvany stated that he believes Bitcoin could disappear within the next four years due to quantum computing. He mentioned that once quantum computers can quickly solve the mathematical problems protecting Bitcoin private keys, "that will be the end of Bitcoin."

However, McAlvany later admitted that he cannot determine whether the relevant breakthrough will occur in four years, five years, or two months. As of mid-2026, there are no quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin's encryption algorithms. His viewpoint is mainly based on concerns about the future development speed of quantum computing, rather than on already occurred security events.

Galaxy Digital estimates that approximately 7 million BTC addresses have exposed public keys on-chain, worth about $470 billion; Glassnode's estimate is 6.04 million, accounting for 30.2% of the Bitcoin supply. Exposing public keys does not equate to assets being stolen; only when quantum computers can reverse-engineer private keys from public keys might these addresses face actual theft risks.

McAlvany also compared Bitcoin to gold and questioned whether Bitcoin could exist for 5,000 years. He expressed relative confidence that gold will still exist by then, but Bitcoin "might exist, or it might not."

Bitcoin developers currently have differing opinions on solutions. BIP-360 proposes to add quantum-resistant address types; BIP-361 plans to phase out support for old-style signatures, with assets that do not migrate in time potentially being permanently frozen, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. Supporters argue that freezing assets is better than allowing quantum attackers to steal and sell them, while critics view it as confiscation.

Companies like BOLTS Technologies and American Fortress are also developing cross-chain quantum-resistant solutions. American Fortress completed an $8 million seed round in May and claims its technology can protect assets without requiring users to migrate addresses, but the relevant technical papers have not yet been published, and the design has not undergone public auditing.