Data: The market capitalization of USDT has dropped to historically extreme levels, and BTC's rebound faces liquidity contraction pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno stated that USDT liquidity is experiencing one of the most severe contraction phases in history. The market value of USDT has decreased by about 4 billion dollars over the past 60 days, approaching historically low levels. At the same time, the liquidity contraction is still accelerating, with the USDT supply decreasing by about 870 million dollars in the past 11 days, indicating that this is not merely a lagging effect caused by previous redemptions.

Stablecoins are the most direct source of available liquidity in the crypto market, and the continuous expansion of USDT is usually accompanied by stronger price performance of BTC, while prolonged contraction phases often correspond to weak demand, market corrections, and declining risk appetite. However, the correlation between USDT flows and BTC prices does not prove a direct causal relationship; both may be influenced by risk-averse sentiment, with redemption pressure and spot selling occurring simultaneously. The current decline in BTC is not an isolated event but is happening against the backdrop of a continuous shrinkage of one of the main sources of market liquidity, which also explains why the recent rebound has been difficult to sustain. To improve the market environment, we need to see the 60-day change in USDT stabilize, daily supply contraction slow down, and re-enter an expansion phase.