Analyst: Over half of BTC is still in a profitable state, the market may be entering the final stage of a bear market

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin (BTC) supply profitability ratio is about 52%, which means that nearly half of Bitcoin holdings are still in a state of loss, and the market is approaching a key turning point in the bear market cycle.

The analysis points out that historically, during each bear market, the Bitcoin profitability supply ratio eventually falls below 50%, entering a phase where "loss-making chips dominate." This usually indicates further market pressure release and becomes an important signal in the later stages of a bear market. Data shows that in June and July of this year, the Bitcoin supply profitability ratio briefly fell below 50%, but overall it has remained near the critical level. Analysts believe this indicates that the current bear market cycle has entered a deeper stage.

The analysis states that regardless of where the final market bottom price is, the Bitcoin market may currently be entering the final stage of the bear market. However, the supply profitability ratio only reflects the on-chain holding cost structure and cannot independently determine the market bottom; subsequent observations still need to combine indicators such as capital flow, macro environment, and market sentiment.