SemiAnalysis: Gemini has exited the frontier competition, and GCP is accelerating the sale of TPUs to third parties for profit

The research organization SemiAnalysis released an analysis indicating that Google DeepMind is no longer among the leading AI laboratories. A week prior, DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis stepped back from daily operations, and key members such as Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean and Gemini co-lead Oriol Vinyals left to establish a new lab called Discovery Loop. The analysis suggests that the long-term struggle within Google over computing power allocation between Gemini and GCP has concluded with GCP emerging victorious.

SemiAnalysis stated that Gemini 3.5 Pro has been canceled, and Gemini 3.6 Flash's performance is inferior to that of leading Chinese open-source models and Grok 4.5. Currently, Gemini has fallen to the 8th or 9th position in the large model rankings. Meanwhile, GCP is selling a large number of TPUs to competitors like Anthropic, having secured long-term leasing and sales contracts for hundreds of thousands of TPUs over the past nine months. The Tokenomics model estimates that Gemini's own ARR is about $12 billion, while GCP's third-party AI cloud service revenue is expected to exceed $73 billion by the end of 2027, with TPU system sales contributing an additional over $120 billion. GCP's latest quarterly growth rate is 82%, and it is expected to accelerate to over 100% by 2027 due to TPU system sales, contributing approximately $3 to Google's earnings per share.