SemiAnalysis: SpaceX may complete a 10GW data center by 2027, with expected inference revenue reaching $300 billion

Research institution SemiAnalysis released an analysis stating that SpaceX is expected to build approximately 10GW of AI data center capacity by the end of 2027. If 50% of this is used for inference services, with annual revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, the annualized revenue could reach $300 billion. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated in the first earnings report that a "conservative estimate" suggests an additional 6-8GW will be added in 2027, with the actual figure possibly exceeding 10GW.

SemiAnalysis's inference simulator shows that when running on the GB300 cluster at current startup cloud prices (about $3/GPU hour), leading model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could generate annual inference revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, with annual costs around $12 billion. Microsoft, with full access to OpenAI models and without bearing training costs, can also capture revenue of the same scale. The analysis points out that Microsoft has signed contracts for 10GW of data centers (total value exceeding $300 billion) since 2026, with a 90-day cancellation clause, significantly reducing signing risks.

Regarding SpaceX's construction progress, SemiAnalysis believes Musk will significantly shorten the construction cycle by using onsite gas power generation, bypassing large power transformers, parallel construction, and shortening the debugging process. The Southaven plant in Tennessee expanded from 27 turbines (approximately 495MW) in February to 69 turbines (1.7GW) in July, and the "MiniHard" project can be completed in about 5 months with 450-500MW. However, the 10GW target still faces multiple challenges such as land approvals, gas supply, and equipment delivery. This analysis is based on model simulations, and actual implementation still carries uncertainties.