Analysis: BTC supply concentration has risen to 14.8%, and volatility risk is accumulating

Analyst Murphy stated that the BTC supply concentration has risen to 14.8%, approaching the high-risk zone of 15%. The risk here refers to volatility rather than the direction of price changes; the supply concentration itself does not indicate direction.

Murphy noted that based on historical data, a pattern has been observed: when the supply concentration curve begins to turn downward, if the BTC price has been rising beforehand, the probability of continuing to rise afterward is greater; conversely, if it has been falling, the probability of continuing to fall is greater. However, the supply concentration is still on the rise and has not yet turned, so it is currently impossible to determine which direction the probability of movement will be greater after the turn. What can be confirmed is that risk is accumulating and volatility is brewing.