Analysis: Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume has fallen to a three-year low, and the market has entered a "hibernation" state

According to The Block, a K33 research report states that the 30-day average trading volume of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit has dropped to $10.8 billion, the lowest level since 2023, with only 5% of trading days recording lower volumes. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin spot has decreased by 18% from last week to $1.8 billion, and the 7-day volatility has also fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since Christmas 2025.

K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that low trading activity creates a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle" in the market. Notably, the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains high, with an average of about 300,000 BTC from June to August, above the average for 2025-2026, indicating a higher risk of liquidation-driven volatility.

The market is currently awaiting the release of the U.S. July CPI data on Wednesday, with economists expecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in CPI and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in core CPI. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 50%. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $60,000 and $80,000 for six consecutive months, down about 50% from the historical high of October 2025.