Data: Bitcoin has entered the late-stage bear market compression phase, but the real demand signals have not yet appeared

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.

On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.