Analyst: Kaito faces a huge unlock, suggested to pay attention after October

Cryptocurrency analyst cryptopainter pointed out that the Kaito-related address base:0x98d0baa52b2d063e780de12f615f963fe8537553 will unlock 18.53 million tokens on August 20, followed by an additional 6.58 million tokens unlocking from September 16 to 17. He believes that the recent actions of issuing good news and driving up prices to sell off are forms of price manipulation, and explained that although he was once optimistic about Kaito, his current stance has shifted to criticism.

The analyst stated that his observation logic for Kaito has been simplified to testing whether the new product ecosystem can truly take off and generate social heat and scale close to 2025 levels. Even a recovery to 50% would prove that it remains a leader in InfoFi, and re-entering related positions at that time would be more assured. If product delivery falls short of expectations and ecosystem participation is average, he will not consider re-staking for now.

He further mentioned that the aforementioned massive unlocks have mostly completed hedging and closing positions, and the spot supply has not been fully released. The true release signal should be when the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price, the funding rate is positively high, and the price is declining with volume. Without seeing these signals, he has no motivation to participate and advises investors to at least wait until after October to observe, while also reminding those who have recently bought back due to the price drop to be cautious.