Research: Over 150 Polymarket wallets suspected of utilizing U.S. military secrets for trading, with total profits of approximately 8 million dollars

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.

ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.

The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.

David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.