Analyst: Bitcoin's on-chain capital inflow has turned positive for the first time in nearly 3 months, but demand intensity remains at historically low levels

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the on-chain capital flow of Bitcoin showed directional improvement in the second half of August. The realized market cap relative net position change rose to +0.1% on August 24, marking the first positive shift since May 28, and has further increased to +0.21% as of today, indicating that the nearly three-month net capital outflow status has ended.

Meanwhile, the 30-day apparent demand/new supply ratio for Bitcoin has been above 1 for six consecutive days, with the latest figure at 2.52, meaning the 30-day apparent demand is approximately 2.5 times the new BTC issuance during the same period. This indicator had dropped to -6.93 on August 2 and briefly rose to 3.16 on August 21. However, the absolute strength of both indicators remains relatively low. Since 2024, the median for periods of positive realized market cap has been +3.24%, while the current +0.21% is only at the lowest 3%-4% of positive samples; the historical median for the apparent demand ratio above 1 is 7.65, and the current 2.52 is also at the lowest 10%. It is believed that the more important signal currently is that the direction of capital flow has shifted from outflow to slight inflow, and demand has once again exceeded new supply, but a strong new demand cycle cannot yet be confirmed. Future observations are needed to see if the realized market cap can remain positive and if the apparent demand can further expand.