Analysis: Bitcoin Coinbase premium returns to zero, but market buying pressure is weakening

CryptoQuant published an analysis stating that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index rebounded to 0 on August 26 after being negative for 14 consecutive days. However, this rebound was accompanied by large-scale profit-taking: last week, realized profits averaged $933 million, a week-on-week increase of 824%; exchange inflows for 1 to 3-month tokens increased by 280%, and daily inflows to wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC reached 1,136 BTC (+235%).

There are significant differences in exchange traffic: Binance had a net inflow averaging +2,184 BTC, while the overall exchange net outflow was -2,372 BTC, with Coinbase experiencing a single-day outflow of 3,499 BTC coinciding with the day the premium returned to zero. Long liquidations increased by 469%, far exceeding the 15% for short liquidations, and stablecoins continued to flow out, indicating that buying support is weakening. Analysts point out that history shows that under this structure, the probability of range-bound fluctuations or shallow corrections is higher than direct increases, and sustained upward movement requires the premium to remain above zero and stablecoin net inflows to turn positive; currently, only the first condition is met.