TD Cowen: Downgraded the year-end target price for Bitcoin to $97,500, and downgraded the target price for Strategy to $260

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza set the Bitcoin price target for the end of 2026 at $97,500, indicating about a 25% upside from the recent price level of around $78,000. Meanwhile, TD Cowen has lowered its previous benchmark forecast of about $140,000 for the end of 2026 to around $100,000, significantly reducing its previously more optimistic long-term expectations. Vitanza stated that this downgrade is mainly due to the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices, rather than a deterioration in company-level or market structure.

Currently, BTC's recent trading range is approximately $58,400 to $78,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 50% from the previous high of over $126,000, and a monthly drawdown that once exceeded 20%. A clearer regulatory environment and inclusion in broader indices are still viewed by TD Cowen as potential catalysts for market recovery. For Strategy, TD Cowen has lowered its target price from $400 to $260 but maintains a "Buy" rating. This adjustment mainly follows the downward revision of Bitcoin price forecasts, rather than a change in the view of Strategy's operational performance or capital structure. Additionally, TD Cowen has initiated coverage on Strive, expecting the company to hold over 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026, and has given it a target price of $32, indicating about a 33% upside.