Glassnode: Bitcoin will still be in a range-bound fluctuation, with resistance at $83,000 to $86,000

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.

On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.

The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.