Fidelity: The Bitcoin bear market may not be over, and new lows could be explored again in November

Fidelity Digital Assets released the Q4 Crypto Market Outlook, noting that at the end of August, Bitcoin and the crypto market surged significantly, with major tokens like BTC and ETH recording their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025. Some investors are focusing on whether a bear market bottom will form in November (based on the 4-year cycle theory), but Fidelity warns that this pattern may not repeat— the bottom may have already occurred in July, or it could reach new lows in November or later.

Fidelity pointed out that historically, the end of a bear market is usually accompanied by a low volatility period followed by price expansion. At the end of August, BTC rose over 25% in a single week, while ETH and SOL increased by 34.1% and 28%, respectively. Recent security incidents involving hardware wallets and the stagnation of the CLARITY Act have not suppressed prices, which may further reinforce the judgment that crypto assets are nearing a bottom. The trading volume of stablecoins has reached 2.3 times that of Visa, and the RWA market is expected to grow faster in 2026 than in previous years, with on-chain adoption continuing to increase. The CLARITY Act is still under review in the Senate, and the SEC proposed the Regulation Crypto Assets last week. Fidelity advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective.