CoinGecko: On-chain Pre-IPO perpetual contracts become an effective valuation indicator

CoinGecko stated in its latest RWA report that the pre-market for synthetic IPOs has begun to serve as an effective valuation indicator for traditional IPOs. On-chain perpetual contracts can provide continuous price discovery and market sentiment anchors for popular unlisted companies before the official opening of exchanges.

The report uses SpaceX and Changxin Storage (CXMT) as examples, noting that before SpaceX's listing, the prices of perpetual contracts across platforms fluctuated between $158 and $170, gradually converging to around $157.40; when its first transaction price on Nasdaq landed at $150.05, the deviation was about 4.9%. The deviation between the perpetual contract price before CXMT's listing and the actual opening price was also about 4.6%.

CoinGecko believes that in the absence of real spot stocks as immediate arbitrage anchors, traders will still form relatively concentrated quotes around valuation, listing popularity, and future liquidity. On-chain Pre-IPO perpetual contracts will thus become an important reference price before the traditional order book opens, providing global investors with a channel to express long and short expectations 24 hours a day.