BIT: If the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, it may become the starting point for the cryptocurrency market in the fourth quarter

According to BIT's weekly report "On Target," BIT analysts pointed out that there are two key catalytic factors in the current market: first, the scale of U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical level of 5%. Since July 24, Bitcoin has risen by 22%, and gold has increased by 9.4%, confirming previous judgments.

The macro cycle model shows that the current market is in the first phase of cyclical re-inflation, which is usually accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase: the annualized return rate of U.S. stocks is about 29%, the annualized return rate of gold is about 47%, and the annualized return rate of Bitcoin is about 73%. Additionally, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the M2 money supply CAGR is 6.02%, far exceeding the CPI of 4.11%. Long-term inflationary pressures continue to accumulate, further supporting the allocation logic for gold and Bitcoin.