Polymarket: The probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month is 64%, and the probability of dropping to $75,000 is 68.5%

Polymarket data shows that traders expect a 64% probability that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in September, and a 68.5% probability that it will drop to $75,000. Market pricing indicates a higher likelihood of a downward scenario. The market stipulates that if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute K-line highest price reaches or exceeds $80,000 before September 30, it will be determined as "Yes."

The market was created on September 7, and prices before creation are not counted; Bitcoin reached $81,265 and $80,329 on September 4 and September 7, respectively. Polymarket data shows that the total trading volume for the September price event is $5.17 million, with liquidity of about $1.46 million; Bitcoin's intraday high reached $79,505, just $495 away from triggering conditions. The probabilities for $90,000 and $100,000 are 8.5% and 1.75%, respectively, while the probabilities for $72,500 and $70,000 are 40.5% and 22.5%.