The supply-demand gap for silicon wafers will expand from about 8% by the end of 2026 to 24% by 2028

According to the Industrial and Commercial Times, with the expansion of HBM and advanced logic below 2 nanometers, it is estimated that the global silicon wafer supply-demand gap will widen from about 8% by the end of 2026 to 15% in 2027 and 24% in 2028. GlobalWafers, Siltronic, and TSMC are expected to benefit from this. It is noted that mid-2027 will be a critical turning point; if the pace of supply expansion does not keep up, a new wave of shortages and rush buying may occur from the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028.

SEMI statistics show that the global silicon wafer shipment area reached 3.573 billion square inches in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 9.1% quarter-on-quarter and 7.4% year-on-year. It is estimated that the global monthly production capacity of 12-inch silicon wafers will be about 10.69 million pieces in 2026, an increase of 7% year-on-year, with only about a 3% increase to 11 million pieces in 2027, and an increase of about 6% to 11.7 million to 11.76 million pieces in 2028. The new supply includes about 300,000 pieces from the second phase of GlobalWafers and about 100,000 pieces from Siltronic.

It is estimated that the consumption of HBM silicon wafers will increase by 23% and 28% in 2027 and 2028, respectively; new general DRAM production capacity will gradually come online starting in 2027, with an additional monthly capacity of about 350,000 to 450,000 pieces by 2028. In terms of advanced logic, the consumption of logic process silicon wafers is expected to increase by 12% and 11% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Currently, customer silicon wafer inventory remains at about 100 to 120 days, and it will take time to digest to the normal level of 50 to 70 days.