CoinShares: The hawkish Federal Reserve and CLARITY face dual pressure, BTC's year-end surge to 80,000 encounters resistance

CoinShares pointed out in its latest research report that the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift and the stalled CLARITY Act are the two major short-term pressures facing the current cryptocurrency market. The report states that the Federal Reserve believes inflation is still too high, and the latest interest rate forecasts no longer indicate any room for rate cuts before 2027, which has supported the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields. Coupled with the Iran conflict driving up energy prices, the possibility of another rate hike within the year has increased.

CoinShares believes that if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly or if there is no major shift in monetary policy expectations, it may be difficult for Bitcoin to effectively break through $80,000 before the end of the year. In terms of regulation, the main disagreements regarding the CLARITY Act still focus on ethical provisions, with a revised version possibly being pushed forward as early as next year. Due to Bitcoin's relatively clear regulatory status, the stalled act has limited impact on it, while Ethereum and other altcoins face greater regulatory uncertainty.