Gemini's stock price has fallen 80% since its IPO, and acquisition speculation has resurfaced

According to CoinDesk, the stock price of the cryptocurrency platform Gemini has fallen by about 80% since its listing, with its market value dropping from a peak of approximately $4 billion to $753 million. Trading volume, revenue, and platform assets have all continued to decline, leading to renewed speculation about a potential acquisition. Gemini's exchange revenue in the second quarter decreased by 38% year-on-year to $12.5 million, spot trading volume fell by 66% to $3.8 billion, and platform assets decreased from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion.

Lorenzo Valente, Director of Digital Asset Research at ARK Invest, posted on X last month that the offshore perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid should acquire Gemini, using it as a gateway to enter the regulated U.S. market for perpetual contracts and prediction market business. The Winklevoss brothers hold 94.5% of the voting rights in Gemini, which may simplify transaction negotiations but also means that any sale must be approved by both individuals. There are currently no signs that Hyperliquid is actively pursuing an acquisition.

Despite the decline in exchange business, Gemini still holds regulatory licenses and approvals that are difficult for competitors to replicate. Potential buyers may weigh the cost of acquisition against the time and legal fees required to apply for licenses independently. This aligns with the trend in cryptocurrency mergers and acquisitions where buyers increasingly value regulatory infrastructure, distribution channels, and market access, such as Keyrock's acquisition of BlockFills' trading assets and Ondo exploring an acquisition of up to $500 million. CoinDesk reported in April that potential buyers were considering acquiring Gemini's closed European and UK operations to obtain licenses. Gemini declined to comment on this.