Shenwan Hongyuan: U.S. Treasury yields may fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% in the second half of the year

The research report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that in the second half of the year, the core fluctuation range of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may be between 4.5% and 5%. The U.S. dollar index is positively correlated with oil prices in the short term, and the U.S.-Iran conflict may lead to upward pressure on the dollar index.

Inflation expectations linked to oil prices are the core variable for short-term interest rates, potentially falling back to 4.3% in an optimistic scenario, while in a pessimistic scenario, it may exceed 5%.