Capital Economics: The U.S. Treasury sell-off may be due to changes in interest rate expectations

Capital Economics believes that the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is mainly due to changes in market expectations for interest rates in the near term. Economist James Reilly pointed out that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is close to its 2007 peak, reflecting rising oil prices and a strong U.S. economy, rather than being driven by AI bond issuance or fiscal concerns. Reilly expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall to 4.25% by the end of 2027.