CITIC Securities: The high growth of earnings in the U.S. stock market may no longer be concentrated solely among leading technology companies

CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that as the performance of U.S. stocks during the domestic long holiday becomes desensitized to interest rates, investors' focus will shift to the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports of U.S. stocks starting next week.

LSEG's consensus expectations show that the S&P 500's revenue and earnings growth rates for Q3 2026 are expected to reach 1.2% and 45.0% year-on-year, respectively, with a slight decline quarter-on-quarter. At the industry level, the year-on-year earnings growth rates for energy, information technology, materials, and healthcare all exceed 50%. The high growth in U.S. stock earnings may no longer be concentrated solely in leading technology companies, as the earnings contribution from non-tech sectors is significantly increasing.

For Hong Kong stocks, although the overseas interest rate hike cycle combined with the restart of AI momentum trading continues to pressure liquidity, the fundamental expectations have bottomed out, and the earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices have begun to be revised upward. The adjustment of industry earnings expectations is significantly differentiated, with some sub-sectors seeing upward revisions, while the earnings expectations for domestic demand-related industries still face downward pressure. The upcoming third-quarter performance will be an important basis for assessing the progress of recovery. We advise investors to remain patient with Hong Kong stocks, as short-term dividend strategies are expected to continue to outperform.