QCP Group: BTC maintains support at $80,000, with resistance at $87,000 yet to be broken

According to the market report from QCP Group, BTC has shown relatively stable performance one year after the largest single-day liquidation event in October last year. Despite market concerns over the U.S. government's transfer of a large amount of BTC and the hacking of Ledger, the price remains in a range-bound fluctuation. BTC has repeatedly attempted to break through $87,000 without success, but the support at $80,000 below is relatively solid.

In the options market, implied volatility remains high, with put option premiums narrowing, and the market overall leans towards waiting for a breakout rather than defensive positioning; if BTC effectively breaks through $87,000, the next target may point to $94,000. Notably, there is a large-scale long position in a 90,000/95,000/100,000 dollar call butterfly option expiring on October 30, which is the largest concentration of positions for the current month-end.

This week, the macroeconomic environment will face a key test, with U.S. CPI and PPI data being released successively. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will speak at the IMF-World Bank annual meeting. The market is currently pricing in about a 17% probability of a rate hike in October, and the aforementioned data and policy signals may become important triggers for BTC's directional choice.