CryptoQuant: The proportion of new Bitcoin whales in the realized market value has risen to about 1/3, with a cost basis of approximately $77,000

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ published an analysis indicating that the realized market cap of new whales in Bitcoin is $78.61 billion, while old whales stand at $159.15 billion. New whales account for 33.06%, compared to about 18% earlier in 2026.

Since September, the realized market cap of new whales has continued to grow, while old whales have remained relatively stable, with the growth primarily coming from new whales. The realized market cap is calculated based on the price at the last on-chain transfer of the tokens and does not represent the proportion of BTC supply.

In terms of cost, the overall cost basis of new whales has decreased from a previous high of around $110,000 to about $68,000 at the end of August, before rebounding to around $77,000. The current BTC price is $82,134, which is approximately 6.7% higher than the cost basis of new whales.

The analysis suggests that the data shows large holders buying during the downturn and continuing to accumulate as prices rebound. However, the turnover of the holder group and transfers between addresses can also inflate the realized market cap, so the growth in realized market cap cannot be interpreted as an equivalent influx of new funds. If BTC continues to fall below around $77,000, new whales will incur losses again, increasing the likelihood of selling during a rebound. The inflow to exchanges and realized losses can be used to determine whether this is short-term pressure or if large holders are starting to sell off again.