JPMorgan Chase: For the first time, includes Bitcoin in long-term return forecasts, with potential returns surpassing gold and bonds

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has first included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market expectations, forecasting an annualized return of about 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, which is expected to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, this prediction also assumes that Bitcoin's annualized volatility could reach as high as 55%, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.

J.P. Morgan believes that the gradual improvement of the regulatory framework, along with the continuous enhancement of market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms, may further promote Bitcoin's recognition in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovations in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, as well as a global capital expenditure growth of approximately $15 trillion, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced investment portfolios; therefore, the institution has not yet included it in its main investment portfolio model. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline in the future and its correlation with other assets stabilizes, its portfolio allocation value is expected to increase.