ChainCatcher news, Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at tonight's meeting, and Fed Chair Powell may reiterate that there is no rush to cut rates. It is anticipated that the Fed will lower its GDP forecast for 2025, raise its inflation forecast, and acknowledge increased uncertainty.The dot plot is expected to show that the median expectation for two rate cuts this year remains unchanged, with risks leaning towards one rate cut. The Fed is expected to cut rates once in June, and due to inflation accelerating again, there will be no further cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher message, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated, "The central bank can cut rates based on good news or bad news. The opportunity for a 'good' rate cut is closing due to new inflation risks. I expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold for the next six months and not take too much action."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Lazard's Chief Market Strategist Temple said that due to inflation risks, Lazard still expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025.He stated that Lazard's view significantly differs from the market consensus, which generally anticipates three rate cuts this year. Temple said, "My view is not in line with the consensus because I expect that by 2025, U.S. tariffs will expand in scope and scale, driving up inflation."He mentioned that a renewed acceleration of inflation may not necessarily lead to rate hikes, but rising price pressures could prevent the Federal Reserve from easing policy in the face of rising unemployment.

ChainCatcher news, John Velis, a strategist at Mellon Bank, stated that the decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is "disheartening." He noted that the rise in long-term inflation expectations is particularly concerning, as long-term inflation expectations had previously remained relatively stable. With consumer confidence wavering, weakened demand may begin to manifest in the real economy, a phenomenon that has already appeared in some sectors such as air travel. According to inflation data released this week, air travel prices fell in February. Regarding the consumer confidence survey, Velis said, "A lot of cyclical evidence suggests that these indicators are not very good predictors, but you cannot ignore the overall decline and the reasons behind it."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the initial value of the U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for March is 4.9%, expected 4.2%, previous value 4.30%.In addition, the initial value of the U.S. five to ten-year inflation rate expectation for March is 3.9%, expected 3.4%, previous value 3.50%.The initial value of the U.S. Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for March is 57.9, expected 63.1, previous value 64.7.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data reports, multiple Wall Street economists have stated that policymakers are unlikely to feel overly reassured by these numbers due to the complex calculations behind the data and trends in key areas.Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau stated in a report, "In short, the inflation process for 2025 is off to a rocky start, and our forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation further confirms our view that inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, especially in the context of policy changes pushing inflation higher. Unless economic activity data weakens significantly, we believe the policy rate will remain unchanged by the end of the year."Although the Federal Reserve also pays attention to CPI and PPI, it believes that the final say on inflation belongs to the PCE price index. Most economists expect that the latest PCE data, to be released later this month, will show that the year-on-year inflation rate is at best stable at 2.6%, and may even rise slightly, further distancing itself from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. February CPI year-on-year growth rate has dropped to a new low since last November, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate has reached a four-year low. Inflation is below expectations across the board, easing concerns about "stagflation." Traders have increased bets on interest rate cuts, and market risk appetite is warming up.According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: the Dow Jones fell by 0.20%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.49%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged over 1.2%, driven by a strong rebound in tech stocks, with Tesla soaring over 7% and Nvidia rising over 6%. However, the market remains concerned that the slowdown in inflation may be temporary, as the Dow has seen three consecutive declines and the limited gains in the S&P reflect cautious market sentiment.The cryptocurrency market is warming up, with Bitcoin spiking to $84,539 at the moment the CPI was announced, then retreating to around $80,000 for support, and continuing to rebound. As of the time of writing, it has risen to $84,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2%. Other major tokens have also seen slight increases, while Ethereum remains relatively sluggish, striving to stay above $1,900. BNB has risen by 4.95% due to a $2 billion investment boost from Abu Dhabi.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar has seen a slight rebound supported by the slowdown in inflation, ending a previous seven-day decline. Oil demand has strengthened, pushing U.S. oil prices up by over 2.1%. Uncertainty over tariffs and the cooling of inflation have contributed to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold increasing by 0.62% at the close.Although the improvement in inflation opens a window for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy raises doubts about the inflation outlook. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the March 19 decision, with CME FedWatch indicating that traders anticipate possible rate cuts in June and September. Investors are focused on tonight's PPI and initial jobless claims data.

ChainCatcher news, CICC's research report states that the U.S. core and total CPI inflation both fell in February, both below market expectations.From a breakdown perspective, oil prices and airfare prices have significantly cooled, reflecting weakened economic demand. Overall, rent remains moderate, and the increase in core commodity prices has slowed. Looking ahead, CICC believes that the slowdown in demand is conducive to curbing inflation, and the real estate and labor markets may not become sources of inflation by 2025. However, tariffs may push up short-term price levels, enhancing the stickiness of inflation. The Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates and will wait for clarity on tariff policies before taking action. CICC maintains its previous judgment that the next rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that the latest inflation data is very good news.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the U.S. CPI inflation data could cause U.S. Treasury yields to move in either direction. A higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.Conversely, soft inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that recent progress towards a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would help enhance risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys of analysts indicate that the overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for February are expected to decline slightly.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Reuters, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated at the CERAWeek energy conference that America's nationalist policies, including mass deportations of immigrants, will lead to rising inflation.He pointed out that costs will continue to rise in the next 6 to 9 months, and the market is underestimating the inflation risks. Fink specifically mentioned that deportations could impact agricultural production and lead to a shortage of electricians and other skilled workers for AI data center construction.In addition, he warned that the high tariffs planned by the Trump administration could increase import costs and questioned the economic toll of these policies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, today, anxiety over the U.S. economy has driven the dollar down to a five-month low against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index hit its lowest level since mid-October, falling 0.5% to 103.329 at one point. Jefferies analyst Brad Bechtel told clients: "We know the routine here, concerns about U.S. growth have pushed us (the dollar index) down to 100, while inflation worries have brought us back up to 108."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which will be the first inflation report during President Trump's term. If there are signs of cooling inflation, it could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and boost the confidence of risk asset investors who have been hit hard recently.Market predictions indicate that the overall inflation rate (CPI) will decrease from 3% to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is expected to drop from 3.3% to 3.2%.A slowdown in inflation typically increases the chances of interest rate cuts, thereby enhancing investor interest in risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the past four months, the CPI has accelerated continuously. Recently, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% from its all-time high, while Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 30% from its peak, to around $80,000.Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both emphasized the need to lower the 10-year Treasury yield to facilitate a reduction in the federal funds rate. Currently, this strategy seems to be showing initial results.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of G10 Foreign Exchange Research and North American Macro Strategy, Steven Englander, stated that despite the slowdown in economic growth, market concerns about a U.S. economic recession may be overstated. Although high interest rates and government spending issues continue to raise worries, he believes that economic data does not fully support the most pessimistic scenarios.Englander pointed out that in the coming months, falling energy prices and improved weather conditions may boost consumer spending, thereby supporting economic growth. Englander expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, in the second and third quarters, respectively. However, due to ongoing fiscal policy support for government spending, the likelihood of further rate cuts is low. In contrast, given stable inflation and wage growth, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice, which would allow the yen to perform better than other major currencies.The recent wave of U.S. tariffs may push up inflation, but the impact is manageable. Englander believes that although tariffs may lead to price increases, the overall impact will still be within a controllable range. He also predicts that the U.S. government will use fiscal policy to support economic growth, which may strengthen the dollar in the second half of the year.

ChainCatcher news, according to TheBlock, analysts pointed out that last Friday's disappointing U.S. February employment report reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could boost risk appetite and lift the stock market and crypto assets. However, ongoing inflation risks driven by tariffs and supply chain issues still constrain a policy shift. Last week, the U.S. Labor Department's seasonally adjusted data showed that non-farm employment added only 151,000 jobs from January to February, marking the weakest February growth since 2019 and falling short of the 170,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Government layoffs, federal funding cuts, tariff uncertainties, and tightening immigration policies will weigh on job growth in the coming months. These factors may lead to a slowdown in hiring, suppress economic momentum, and reinforce deflationary trends. The Federal Reserve is facing a complex policy environment: weak employment supports rate cuts, but supply-side constraints and inflation concerns from geopolitical risks make it cautious. Uncertainty may continue to suppress the crypto market.Wincent Senior Director Paul Howard stated that the disappointing employment report underscores the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate the economy, and reducing deficit costs may be a government priority, which would benefit risk assets like crypto; CoinPanel trading automation expert Kirill Kretov pointed out that rising unemployment could improve Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity by raising rate cut expectations. Slowing wage growth suggests easing inflation pressures, making it more likely for the Federal Reserve to pivot sooner. The CME FedWatch tool shows that 55.3% of rate traders believe the June FOMC meeting is the earliest point for a rate cut this year, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has downgraded U.S. first-quarter economic growth to a contraction of 2.4%, which, if realized, would mark the first deflation since the first quarter of 2022, intensifying recession fears.Analysts indicate that global economic uncertainty has prompted an increase in bearish positions in the derivatives market, with the risk reversal indicator over the past 24 hours leaning more towards put options, reflecting market concerns about increased selling pressure. Options flow suggests that bullish sentiment may need to wait until the third quarter. Although $80,000 remains a key short-term support level for Bitcoin, the upside potential is limited. Before a new narrative emerges, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market may strengthen. Tariff risks persist, and volatility may increase ahead of the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data this week.

ChainCatcher news, according to Solana Floor disclosed on the X platform, the Solana SIMD-0228 proposal has started voting, which could reduce the SOL inflation rate by 80%. Dune data shows that currently, the approval rate is 7.4%, and the disapproval rate is 1.1%.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the costs of currently adopting a cautious stance on monetary policy are "very, very low," but he also mentioned that these costs could rise if inflation expectations come under pressure. Although the standard reaction to one-time price increases caused by tariffs is to ignore them, this time may be different.Powell said, "If it (i.e., tariffs) turns into a series of events, and if the increases are larger, that will be important, and what really matters is what happens to long-term inflation expectations." Powell also pointed out that in 2019, the Federal Reserve had actually cut interest rates three times in response to the first tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the economic slowdown that followed, "This is the result of these broad changes in economic policy, and not just tariffs."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a public speech tonight, which will be a public assessment of the Trump tariff policy by the Federal Reserve. The tariff policy has made the risk of "stagflation" a topic of discussion among market participants again.Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, stated that the Federal Reserve's responsibility is not to formulate trade or tax policy, and the government can do whatever it wants. However, the Federal Reserve should more clearly indicate that, based on all existing mainstream evidence, tariffs are more likely to lead to rising inflation. At the time Trump is set to implement the tariff policy, inflation levels are not low.