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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi," the "Over" option in the sub-market "Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 8.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 81% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 31%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction on Polymarket regarding the event "The United States announces a new agreement or ceasefire extension with Iran," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 30" experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 46.5% an hour ago to the current 62% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - LEC Playoffs," the option "Karmine Corp" in the sub-market "First Kill of the Second Game" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 88.5% (a fluctuation of 38.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the Polymarket event "French Open ATP Sinner vs Berrettini," the sub-market "Match Completion" for the "Yes" option has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 95% an hour ago to the current 50.5% (a fluctuation of 44.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "May 31, 2026" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 11.5% an hour ago to the current 72.2% (a fluctuation of 60.7%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale sold $56,977.37 in a single transaction on "May 31, 2026" during the "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin" event. Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 70.5%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Bitcoin breaking through on June 1" in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "72,000" has experienced severe fluctuations, plummeting from 85.95% an hour ago to the current 59.6% (a fluctuation of 26.35%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - LPL Playoffs," the "Anyone's Legend" option in the sub-market "Match Winner" has experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 66.5% an hour ago to the current 15.5% (a fluctuation of 51%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda" on Polymarket, the winning probability of the sub-market "Match Completion" for the "Yes" option has experienced a dramatic fluctuation, dropping from 94% an hour ago to the current 50.5% (a fluctuation of 43.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Cointelegraph, Wintermute stated that it is expanding its institutional trading business into prediction markets. Wintermute will provide two-way market liquidity for event contracts at major venues to reduce spreads, support larger trades, and improve the reliability of market implied probabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, stated that prediction markets possess data characteristics of major asset classes, but liquidity is still in the early stages. Continuous two-way liquidity can not only narrow spreads but also support larger trading volumes, thereby improving the signals contained in market prices.

a16z Crypto published an article analyzing the unique value and challenges faced by prediction markets. Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of events, aggregating dispersed information through price signals to provide real-time estimates of the probabilities of future events. Unlike traditional polls, prediction markets have the ability to update in real-time and incentivize participants to bet their capital on their information, thereby improving prediction accuracy.The article points out that prediction markets are used not only by companies for product launches and research experiment forecasts but also by the media as a source of "crowd wisdom," covering a wide range of events from geopolitical issues to AI model performance. Its core advantage lies in providing independent probability estimates for specific events, rather than relying on indirect signals from overall asset price movements. However, prediction markets still face challenges related to infrastructure and market design, including event verification, contract settlement, participant information adequacy, and potential manipulation risks.a16z believes that if these issues are resolved, prediction markets are expected to become important tools for decision-making and information aggregation, expanding financial and societal insights into future events.

According to The Block, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services for several mainstream event contract platforms, marking the official expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market at the intersection of crypto and traditional assets.The company stated that it has been continuously providing buy and sell bilateral quotes on multiple "leading platforms," with the total monthly trading volume of these prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year, indicating that this sector is growing rapidly but still in the early stages of liquidity. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at the company, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional major asset classes, but liquidity is still insufficient, requiring continuous bilateral quotes to enhance price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will improve the quality of market probability signals.In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure, especially in terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, as these markets gradually approach a derivatives-level institutional development structure.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit regarding a new law in Minnesota that will take effect on August 1, which classifies the operation, hosting, or promotion of prediction market platforms as a criminal offense. Kalshi argues that the law is unconstitutional, claiming it infringes upon the exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives markets granted to the CFTC by the Commodity Exchange Act, and violates the First Amendment on the grounds of restricting advertising.Previously, the CFTC had submitted a motion on May 19, also claiming that the state legislation is unconstitutional. U.S. President Trump has also publicly expressed support for the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets. Kalshi has previously won a preliminary injunction in similar enforcement actions in New Jersey and Arizona.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit regarding a new law in Minnesota that will take effect on August 1, which classifies the operation, hosting, or promotion of prediction market platforms as a criminal offense. Kalshi argues that the law is unconstitutional, claiming it infringes upon the exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives markets granted to the CFTC by the Commodity Exchange Act, and violates the First Amendment on the grounds of restricting advertising.Previously, the CFTC had filed a motion on May 19, also claiming that the state legislation is unconstitutional. U.S. President Trump has also publicly expressed support for the CFTC's singular regulatory authority over prediction markets. Kalshi has previously won a preliminary injunction in similar enforcement actions in New Jersey and Arizona.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) reach in May 2026?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the sub-market "$85" option "is" has experienced severe fluctuations, dropping from 45.5% an hour ago to the current 27.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Bitcoin above ___ on May 29?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the sub-market "74,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 38.5% an hour ago to the current 22.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "How many tweets from Elon Musk from May 22 to May 29, 2026?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "160-179" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 86.1% an hour ago to the current 60.45% (a fluctuation of 25.65%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $59,739 in the event "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before...?" on "May 31." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 91.35%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $99,999 in the event "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before...?" on "May 31." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 90.84%.