opinion

Recent federal litigation by Polymarket against Massachusetts may determine whether the regulation of prediction markets in the United States falls under federal or state jurisdiction. Polymarket argues in the lawsuit that Congress has granted exclusive regulatory authority over "event contracts" (prediction markets for sports, politics, etc.) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and therefore state governments do not have the power to independently prohibit or regulate these platforms.The lawsuit aims to prevent Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell from potential enforcement actions, following a preliminary injunction issued by the state court against Polymarket's competitor Kalshi, which determined that its sports-related contracts constituted unlicensed sports betting. The regulatory conflict between the federal government and the states is intensifying, with prediction market platforms claiming they are regulated as derivatives markets by the CFTC and can operate nationwide, while states like Massachusetts and Nevada view them as a "sports betting loophole" that circumvents state gambling laws, leading to multiple lawsuits and injunctions.The outcome of Polymarket's appeal could reshape the regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States, determining whether these platforms can operate free from state gambling law restrictions or must comply with varying rules across states, and it may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market Opinion has announced the completion of a $20 million Series A funding round, with participation from Hack VC, Jump Crypto, Primitive Ventures, Decasonic, and others.Forrest Liu, founder and CEO of Opinion, stated that the funding will be used to strengthen regional layouts and promote global expansion in preparation for the 2026 World Cup and multiple national election cycles.Opinion stated that its prediction market fully adopts on-chain settlement, with a model closer to Polymarket rather than the centralized platform Kalshi. The platform claims to currently handle about one-third of the global prediction market trading volume, with an open contract size exceeding $130 million, showing significant growth since last October, covering various fields such as macroeconomics and regional events.At the industry level, prediction markets are evolving from niche products into an emerging asset class. Data shows that the global monthly trading volume of prediction markets has approached $10 billion, with demand continuing to rise against the backdrop of increasing policy and geopolitical uncertainties.

The Ministry of Public Security has announced that it has drafted the "Cyber Crime Prevention Law (Draft for Public Consultation)" and is now seeking public opinions. The content includes: no individual or organization shall knowingly harbor, transfer, acquire, sell on behalf of others, or conceal and disguise funds, data, or virtual property obtained from others' online illegal activities. No individual or organization shall knowingly use funds obtained from others' illegal activities to provide capital flow services using virtual currency or other online virtual properties.

According to official news, Binance Alpha will launch Opinion (OPN). Eligible users can claim airdrops using Alpha points on the Alpha event page after trading begins.

The Ministry of Public Security has announced that it has drafted the "Cyber Crime Prevention Law (Draft for Comments)" and is now publicly soliciting opinions from society, with the deadline for feedback set for March 2, 2026. The content includes: no individual or organization shall knowingly harbor, transfer, acquire, sell on behalf of others, or conceal or disguise funds, data, or virtual property obtained from others' online illegal activities.No individual or organization shall knowingly use funds obtained from others' illegal activities to provide capital flow services using virtual currency or other online virtual property for others.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb posted on platform X that in the past few months, the public perception of Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) has seen a significant reversal: he was once viewed as a "hero" by some in the community upon his release, but currently, some opinions equate him with negative figures like SBF. He believes that both extreme views are unreasonable, but they reflect an interesting phenomenon of changing market sentiment.CZ subsequently responded that both viewpoints are overly simplistic and may be related to changes in market cycles and the macro environment. For example, the crypto industry previously experienced a more sympathetic sentiment under regulatory pressure, while currently, in a relatively friendlier policy environment, if Bitcoin does not continue to reach new highs, market sentiment may turn negative. This could also simply be a change in sentiment driven by bull and bear cycles. He stated that the team will continue to focus on building and thanked the community for their support.

Analyst Murphy stated that in this cycle, the exchange rate of Bitcoin to gold has dropped from 41 to 15, while in the previous cycle, the lowest value of this ratio when Bitcoin hit its low was 9.Analysts believe that with the craziness of the gold market, this value is expected to reappear soon. At some point, capital will certainly recognize the cost-effectiveness of BTC again, and that moment is only getting closer.

Binance founder CZ posted on social media, stating that there are signs of a suspected organized public opinion attack surrounding his recent remarks.CZ mentioned that some accounts, which were previously unfamiliar, have concentrated on posting highly similar content within a short period, displaying obvious characteristics of copying and amplification. The overall behavior is more akin to systematic operation rather than natural discussion. The related topics continue to spread within the community.

According to market news, the Financial Services Agency of Japan has opened a public consultation on the draft implementation guidelines involving cryptocurrencies, electronic payment tools, and financial institutions. The draft clarifies the specific execution requirements following the amendment of the Payment Services Act in 2025, including updates to official announcements, administrative guidelines, and regulatory rules.The draft covers multiple areas, including the designation of newly added bonds as supporting assets, the regulatory framework for electronic payment tools and cryptocurrency-related intermediary services, as well as updated regulatory guidelines for financial institutions and their subsidiaries. This consultation will end on February 27, 2026, after which the regulations will come into effect following the completion of necessary procedures, and the results of the consultation will be announced separately.It is reported that the Financial Services Agency of Japan is planning a comprehensive adjustment of the regulatory framework, aiming to launch the country's first spot cryptocurrency ETFs by 2028. The roadmap includes reclassifying cryptocurrencies as "specific assets" under the Investment Trust Act, promoting a reduction of the cryptocurrency capital gains tax from a maximum of 55% to a uniform 20%, and allowing time to strengthen custody and investor protection standards.

According to The Block, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan has opened a public consultation period to solicit opinions on draft rules regarding the types of collateralized bonds for stablecoins, with a deadline of February 27, 2026.This move aims to implement the Payment Services Act of 2025 by defining the "specific trust beneficiary rights" of the issuer's reserves. The Financial Services Agency stated that the finalized standards will specify the asset composition of all regulated, yen-pegged stablecoins issued within that jurisdiction.

The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has entered the final stage of its regulatory consultation for cryptocurrency companies and is seeking feedback on how its consumer duty rules apply to crypto asset firms, with a deadline of March 12. The FCA plans to open the application process for crypto asset licenses in September 2026.Consumer duty is a regulation from the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) aimed at setting high standards for how financial firms treat retail customers. The regulation requires firms to act with integrity, avoid causing foreseeable harm, and help people achieve their financial goals. Companies must provide clear information, fair pricing, and support throughout the entire customer journey (not just at the point of transaction).

According to DL News, a proposal requiring the Optimism Foundation to use 50% of its Superchain network revenue each month to buy back OP governance tokens has opened for voting on Thursday. There are divisions within the DAO community regarding this. Opponents argue that using hard assets for buybacks is an inefficient use of capital, especially when the foundation still needs to net sell OP through grants and other means. Another major point of contention is that the buyback will be executed through over-the-counter transactions, which will not directly affect the public market price, and some representatives are concerned it may become a channel for insiders to unlock tokens.Supporters, on the other hand, believe that the buyback mechanism can clearly convey the value of network growth to the market and is the "right direction." As of now, the voting shows overwhelming support, with over 3.8 million votes in favor and about 19,000 votes against. Voting will end on January 28.

Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn stated that the U.S. Senate Banking Committee's originally scheduled hearing on the cryptocurrency market structure bill has been postponed, highlighting the deep divisions between Congress and the industry on several key issues, particularly focusing on stablecoin yield mechanisms and DeFi-related provisions. This delay occurred just hours after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew his support for the bill. Armstrong publicly opposed the bill's references to tokenized securities, DeFi restrictions, and stablecoin yields. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott subsequently announced the postponement of the hearing, but no new timeline has been provided. With the Senate set to recess next week, the earliest possible restart could be between January 26 and 30.Alex Thorn pointed out that within just 48 hours, the bill draft was released late at night, over 100 amendments were submitted, and stakeholders continued to discover new points of contention at the last minute, significantly increasing the difficulty of political coordination. On the market side, following the announcement of the delay, cryptocurrency assets generally declined, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping about 2% on the day; related U.S. stocks also faced pressure, with Coinbase down 6.5%, Robinhood down 7.8%, and Circle down 9.7%. In his analysis, Thorn believes that although there is a broad consensus on "market structure" itself, non-core but highly sensitive issues surrounding stablecoin yields, DeFi compliance, and granting the SEC regulatory tools in the area of tokenized securities have created an insurmountable political divide. "The apparent gap in disagreements is not large, but the substantive chasm is deep."

Cryptanalysis expert defioasis.eth posted on the X platform that the nominal trading volume of the BSC prediction market exceeded $400 million for the third time in a single day, with Opinion accounting for 86.7% of the share. Predict Fun's nominal trading volume reached a record high of $37 million, with daily fee revenue hitting $136,000, setting a new historical record.The positions of the three major BSC prediction markets continue to reach new highs, with a total scale of $150 million, approximately twice the gap from Polymarket and Kalshi. After the end of the Double Festival event, the number of trading users and trading transactions on Opinion experienced a decline, but both have now rebounded from their lows.

The U.S. prosecution has submitted a letter to the Southern District of New York Federal Court opposing the court's acceptance of the amicus brief submitted by the digital asset advocacy organization DeFi Education Fund while considering whether to re-examine a case related to Ethereum MEV.U.S. Acting Attorney Jay Clayton stated in a document addressed to Judge Jessica Clarke that the brief "is detached from the trial record and merely reiterates legal arguments previously rejected by the court," and should not be accepted. The case involves brothers Anton and James Peraire-Bueno, who are accused of exploiting approximately $25 million through automated MEV bots on Ethereum. In November, the court declared a mistrial after the jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on guilt or innocence. Subsequently, the U.S. government requested the court to schedule a retrial as soon as possible in late February or early March 2026.According to the draft brief submitted by DEF on December 19, the organization supports the dismissal of the case or a not guilty verdict, arguing that such prosecutions create uncertainty and fear for DeFi developers, potentially stifling industry innovation and driving participants away. The prosecution, however, contends that these views do not provide new legal grounds. The direction of the case remains unclear. If the brothers are found guilty of the same charges in the retrial, they could face up to 20 years in prison for each count. The outcome of the case is also seen within the industry as having significant implications for MEV behavior and the related compliance boundaries.

According to Cointelegraph, several industry executives have stated that as the market environment weakens, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies face severe challenges as they approach 2026, and a large-scale liquidation may occur in the industry. Altan Tutar, co-founder and CEO of MoreMarkets, pointed out that a large number of DAT companies emerged in 2025, providing Wall Street investors with exposure to crypto assets, but after the market correction, many companies' stock prices have significantly declined, and the overall outlook has become bleak.Tutar believes that with increasing competition, most crypto treasury companies will struggle to survive, particularly those focused on altcoins, which may be the first to exit the market, as their market capitalization is unlikely to remain above the net asset value (mNAV) of the crypto assets they hold in the long term. He also mentioned that even treasuries built around mainstream assets like Ethereum, Solana, or XRP may face similar pressures later on.Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, added that the number of publicly listed or quasi-listed companies holding Bitcoin surged in 2025, but "simply holding Bitcoin is not a sustainable growth model," and companies lacking revenue management capabilities may struggle to endure the next downturn. He pointed out that the treasury companies that survive often view crypto assets as digital capital that can generate revenue and liquidity, rather than merely a store of value.Additionally, Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, stated that crypto ETFs are becoming significant competitors to DATs, as they can provide investors with a more compliant and transparent price exposure. He believes that for the crypto treasury model to continue to develop, it needs to integrate more deeply with traditional financial infrastructure, approaching ETF standards in terms of compliance, auditing, and asset management.

Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan MeetingOne committee member stated that the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates at a pace of approximately once every few months for a period of time. Even if the policy interest rate is raised to 0.75%, Japan's real interest rates will still remain in deeply negative territory. (Jinshi)

Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jietzhuang posted on the X platform, stating, "I am pleased to see that the Hong Kong SAR Government's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau has new developments in promoting digital asset trading. The SAR Government has officially launched a consultation on legislative proposals for digital asset trading and custody services, which represents a further clarification of the relevant digital asset regulatory activities and responds to the needs and ideas of the market.The Hong Kong SAR Government has received numerous opinions in the past when consulting the industry about the direction of related over-the-counter trading and custody services. This legislative proposal not only establishes the legitimacy of over-the-counter trading and custody services for cryptocurrencies and digital assets, allowing the industry to operate in a more compliant manner; on the other hand, it can also combat suspected fraudulent activities that use related activities as a guise, helping citizens avoid losses. I encourage the industry to express more opinions within this month to improve the development and policies of Hong Kong's Web3."

Confidential computing network Arcium member @milianstx posted that using Tornado Cash can result in user wallets being flagged across hundreds of applications, rendering these applications unusable.@milianstx calls on users not to mix their funds with North Korean hackers.