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Domestic storage chip leader Changxin Technology is open for subscription today, with the new share allotment rate soaring, possibly ushering in a "sunshine" market

The domestic DRAM storage chip leader Changxin Technology (688825) has officially opened for new stock subscription. Due to the large issuance scale, this new stock offering has rarely seen a "sunshine market" trend. Institutions predict that the online winning rate will soar to 0.3% to 0.7% (with a neutral expectation of about 0.45%), reaching 10 to 20 times that of ordinary Sci-Tech Innovation Board new stocks. Calculations show that the probability of winning for a single account with an average market value of 200,000 in the Shanghai market is as high as about 18%, and theoretically, an average market value of 1 million can reliably secure 1 winning ticket.The issuance price of the stock is 8.66 yuan per share, and to secure one winning ticket (500 shares), a payment of 4,330 yuan is required. The official winning rate and results will be disclosed on July 17 and July 20 (Monday) respectively, and winners must ensure sufficient funds in their accounts by 16:00 on the 20th. Various institutions have given a neutral expectation, as Changxin Technology's market value is expected to reach 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan after listing, with the profit margin for a single winning ticket expected to be around 20,000 yuan.If Changxin Technology fully exercises the green shoe mechanism, the total fundraising amount will reach 66.607 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and it will also become the third largest IPO in A-share history. Financial data shows that the company has fully turned a profit, with expected operating revenue in the first half of 2026 reaching 110 billion to 120 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 50 billion to 57 billion yuan. The total amount of this strategic placement exceeds 14.4 billion yuan, successfully attracting social security funds, pension funds, as well as 30 major industry terminal giants such as Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi.

first_img Key components surge in price, PC brands accelerate the introduction of domestic storage from Changchun and Changxin to reduce costs

According to the Industrial and Commercial Times, due to the soaring prices of key components such as memory and SSDs, the cost pressure for configuring high-capacity storage in mainstream laptops has greatly increased. Cost-effective mainland Chinese memory and storage components are gradually penetrating the PC supply chain, with brands such as Lenovo, ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte, Acer, and even the American brand Apple accelerating the certification, introduction, or platform tuning of related products.The report pointed out that Lenovo has expanded its use of mainland components this year, and recently flagship laptop models equipped with Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) SSDs have appeared on North American cross-border e-commerce platforms. The American brand Apple is also reported to be negotiating with the U.S. government to procure Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) memory to cope with the rising prices. In terms of Taiwanese board manufacturers, MSI recently announced that it is the first to complete the verification and tuning of Changxin Memory DDR5 chips on the AMD platform at DDR5-8000+, while Gigabyte has also adopted Changxin Memory chips in some motherboard models. ASUS and Acer have introduced memory modules from mainland manufacturers such as BIWIN through their own brand memory certification or OEM models.Industry analysts believe that although the short-term imbalance in supply and demand for storage has prompted non-mainland brands to accelerate related certifications, due to the limited production capacity of mainland manufacturers, brand Taiwanese manufacturers still emphasize that Korean original manufacturers with long-term contracts remain the main supply partners at present.

Vitalik proposed the "extremely simplified chain" solution, where validators submit STARK proofs daily, and the state storage is compressed to 6 bytes

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published the proposal "The Extremely Lean Chain," demonstrating how to radically compress the state requirements of the Ethereum consensus chain in the context of the "Lean" upgrade. This plan shifts responsibility to validators, who manage and periodically prove their state through ZK proofs, thereby eliminating the processing burden for each epoch and potentially supporting millions of validators.The core mechanisms include: removing the validator public keys from the on-chain state, storing only the deposit tree index; canceling real-time reward and penalty processing, with validators generating daily STARK proofs of their participation and updating balances; completely re-randomizing validator identities daily, achieving strong anonymity through ZK-STARK, with withdrawal addresses exposed only at the time of withdrawal and not publicly linked to deposits or on-chain activities. Vitalik stated that based on upgrades such as single-slot finality and quantum-resistant signature aggregation, the state requirement per validator could be compressed from approximately 180 bytes to 6 bytes. The daily proof cost for a single validator requires processing about 5400 Merkle branches, which can be completed within 1 hour on ordinary hardware, and the on-chain burden can be reduced through aggregated proofs. Additionally, this design can achieve a "virtually free" single secret leader election function, with 1 day as the conservative cycle length and 1 hour as the lower limit.

SemiAnalysis: Changxin Storage has become the fourth largest DRAM manufacturer in the world, and will not break the super cycle of storage shortages in the short term

The semiconductor research institution SemiAnalysis has released a latest analysis indicating that Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has clearly become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer. Although its production capacity and cash flow are continuously growing, the institution believes that Changxin Memory still faces multiple challenges in equipment, technology, and market, and will not end the current storage "super cycle" in the short term.In terms of specific challenges, export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (such as EUV, advanced etching, and TSV tools) severely restrict Changxin's expansion into more advanced processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) fields; although domestic equipment (such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, etc.) has alleviated some pressure, it cannot fully resolve the integration and yield bottlenecks across multiple process links, resulting in its technology still lagging behind leading manufacturers by several generations. Additionally, Changxin's market share is currently still highly concentrated in the Chinese domestic market, with global expansion limited by geopolitical factors and customers' willingness to diversify their supply chains.In response to market concerns that Changxin might "impact the global market with cheap chips," SemiAnalysis clarified that there is currently a severe structural shortage in the DRAM market, and the increase in Changxin's production capacity may even struggle to fully meet domestic demand in China. In fact, the prices of Chinese memory chips are also soaring significantly, in line with the global upward trend, and Changxin is similarly a beneficiary of the shortage premium. Therefore, Changxin Memory should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force, and in the current context of accelerated AI demand and constrained supply, it cannot shake the fundamental super cycle dominated by leading manufacturers in the short term.
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