economist

По оценкам «Экономиста», ИИ на сегодняшний день создал в США около 1 миллиона новых рабочих мест, что значительно превышает примерно 200 тысяч рабочих мест, сокращенных из-за ИИ с середины 2023 года. Этот вывод основан на данных о занятости за август, опубликованных Бюро трудовой статистики США 4 сентября: экономика США добавила 162 тысячи рабочих мест, уровень безработицы остался на уровне 4,1%. Разница между уровнем безработицы среди молодежи в возрасте 20-24 лет и общим уровнем безработицы приблизилась к самым низким за десятилетия.Рост занятости в основном обусловлен высококвалифицированными рабочими местами, непосредственно связанными с ИИ, а также увеличением рабочих мест в сфере синих воротничков, вызванным строительством центров обработки данных. С 2022 года количество рабочих мест для инженеров, разработчиков программного обеспечения, математиков и специалистов по данным увеличилось примерно на 730 тысяч сверх трендовой линии. Главный экономист Института Burning Glass оценивает, что в настоящее время около 1% профессиональных рабочих мест в США можно отнести к рабочим местам в области ИИ, в то время как в области компьютерных и биологических наук этот показатель достигает 4% до 5%. Расходы на строительство центров обработки данных увеличились на 60% за год, наблюдается рост спроса на электриков, специалистов по отоплению и вентиляции. Данные Indeed показывают, что зарплаты на должностях по установке и обслуживанию центров обработки данных на 40% выше, чем у аналогичных работ.Количество рабочих мест в службе поддержки клиентов сократилось примерно на 10% с января 2023 года, а количество административных помощников уменьшилось примерно на 15%. Microsoft и Meta сократили персонал в процессе реорганизации бизнеса вокруг ИИ, а такие компании, как Block и Intuit, заменили часть работников автоматизированными инструментами. В среднем американские компании объявляют о сокращении примерно 16 тысяч рабочих мест, связанных с ИИ, каждый месяц. Экономист Ноа Смит отмечает, что в настоящее время трудно найти профессии, уничтоженные ИИ, в данных о занятости.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно последнему отчету The Economist Enterprise, после 13 лет развития и нескольких стратегических обновлений, Gate постепенно расширяется из традиционной платформы для торговли криптоактивами в комплексную финансовую инфраструктуру, соединяющую цифровые активы и традиционные финансовые рынки. В отчете отмечается, что с появлением большего количества традиционных финансовых продуктов, таких как акции, ETF, токенизированные активы, валюты и металлы, Gate сокращает расстояние между криптофинансами и TradFi через многоактивные продукты и строительство глобальной инфраструктуры. Основатель и CEO Gate, доктор Хан, в эксклюзивном интервью заявил, что с развитием отрасли цифровые активы сталкиваются не только с техническими проблемами, но и с вопросами управления рисками, защиты пользователей и регулирования отрасли.В области интеграции TradFi Gate уже сформировала многоуровневую структуру, охватывающую токенизированные активы, деривативы и торговлю акциями, и последовательно запустила такие продукты и услуги, как xStocks, Ondo, Gate TradFi, Pre-IPOs, прямой IPO и акции Gate. При этом акции Gate уже поддерживают торговлю акциями США, Гонконга и Южной Кореи, значительно снижая порог участия глобальных пользователей на традиционных финансовых рынках. В то же время Gate постоянно совершенствует инфраструктуру для круглосуточной торговли и ликвидности, чтобы удовлетворить потребности глобальных пользователей в распределении активов на различных рынках.The Economist Enterprise также отмечает, что с дальнейшей институционализацией рынка цифровых активов соответствие, прозрачность и инфраструктурные возможности становятся важными компонентами конкурентоспособности платформ. Gate продолжает продвигать глобальную стратегию соблюдения норм в разных юрисдикциях и с 2020 года предоставляет сторонние аудиты и открытые доказательства резервов (Proof of Reserves). Кроме того, Gate внедряет инфраструктуру ИИ в Web3, соединяя ИИ с торговлей, кошельками и другими услугами через такие продукты, как Gate AI, Gate MCP, GateClaw, продвигая платформу от традиционных торговых площадок к комплексной финансовой инфраструктуре, соединяющей цифровые активы, традиционные финансы и приложения ИИ.

According to Jinshi reports, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and delayed the timeline for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut, expecting the core PCE index to remain above 3%. Surveys show that economists are evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, whereas previous predictions anticipated a rate cut in October. Wilmington Trust Corp Chief Economist Luke Tilly stated that consumer spending is weak and expects the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, economist Anna Wong stated that the hiring performance in April was unexpectedly strong, but the unemployment rate rose. This combination suggests that the job growth rate needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate may be higher than the near-zero growth level previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. In the April employment report, the freight industry contributed more than half of the new jobs for the month, confirming the improvement signals released in recent PMI and regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys. Wong expects the Federal Reserve to likely keep interest rates unchanged until the fourth quarter, at which point, as the unemployment rate rises, a 50 basis point rate cut is anticipated.

According to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated that the labor market is currently in a generally stable state, but inflation remains high at 3%, and much work still needs to be done. He expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily hold its position and observe the development of the situation. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle also expects that the statement after the Federal Reserve meeting will acknowledge the improvement in the job market and the rise in inflation, but the policy guidance will remain unchanged, with most expecting to maintain interest rates.

According to Caixin, Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the Trump administration's push for financial deregulation, particularly the relaxation of bank capital requirements and regulatory transparency, is significantly increasing the risk of a systemic financial crisis in the United States in the future.Kenneth Rogoff pointed out that one of the important reasons supporting the relaxation of regulations is to allow traditional banks to maintain innovation and market competitiveness in the competition with cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins pegged to the dollar. If cryptocurrency regulations are relaxed simultaneously, combined with the deregulation of the traditional financial system, it could trigger a "double deregulation" risk, ultimately leading to systemic collapse. Although a comprehensive banking crisis may not erupt in the short term, the risks have clearly increased, and the regulatory balance between stablecoins and the traditional banking system is becoming a key hidden danger.

The newly appointed chief economist of New Fire Group, Fu Peng, stated on Twitter that the underlying business model of Bitcoin perpetual contracts is essentially the same as the "rollover fee/overnight fee" in traditional finance's gold and industrial commodity spot exchanges.Fu Peng pointed out that back in the day, gold exchanges settled through daily forced liquidation, with longs and shorts paying each other rollover fees. When retail investors held a large number of high-leverage long positions, the rollover fee became the most stable and hidden source of income for the platform. Nowadays, Bitcoin spot platforms mainly rely on perpetual contracts, with both sides settling the funding rate every 8 hours. When longs dominate, retail investors holding long positions continuously pay funding rates to shorts.Although the platform does not directly collect this fee, it significantly enhances trading activity, open interest, and liquidity, indirectly generating a large amount of fee income and forming a stable and substantial cash flow. Essentially, it is a business model where large players/institutions "collect rent" from long-term holdings, retail investors pay for leverage to go long, and the platform indirectly takes a cut.

Circle Chief Economist Gordon Liao submitted a governance discussion proposal for Aave, suggesting adjustments to the USDC interest rate parameters of the Aave v3 Ethereum core market to address the high utilization and liquidity strain that persisted for several days following the KelpDAO rsETH event.The proposal suggests raising the "Slope 2" to 40% initially, with a target of 50%, while lowering the optimal utilization rate to attract more USDC deposits. Some members of the Aave community believe that higher borrowing costs may exacerbate the liquidation risk for borrowers. Data shows that Aave's current total locked value is approximately $15.3 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that among 103 economists, 71 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least once this year.

Fu Peng, the former chief economist of Northeast Securities, has officially joined the Hong Kong-listed company New Fire Group as the chief economist. New Fire Group has confirmed this news.

According to Jinshi News, economists say that the sudden rise in gasoline prices felt by American consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise by 1% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022; the core CPI may rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Economists point out that persistent price pressures and new inflation risks brought about by the Middle East war may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this year.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that among 82 economists, 65 (about 79%) believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates one to two times this year.

According to the Economic Observer, Ba Shusong, the chief economist of the China Banking Association and a senior advisor at the HSBC Business School of Peking University, is suspected of being involved in an illegal fundraising case and was taken away by the authorities around March 12, 2026, since then he has been "out of contact" with the outside world.Insiders say that the case may be related to an illegal fundraising project led by his students, and Ba Shusong has been restricted from leaving the country for at least six months. His affiliated institution and he himself have not publicly responded to the relevant situation.

According to Jinshi News, Michael Pearce, the Chief Economist for the U.S. at Oxford Economics, stated that the market is gradually ruling out the possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term, but this may be a misjudgment. He pointed out that although economic growth is stronger, it has not significantly tightened labor market conditions, which explains why most officials still believe there is a path for interest rate cuts this year. Pearce also mentioned that the market believes this situation leans more towards mild disinflation rather than exacerbating inflation in terms of long-term inflation impact.

According to Jin Ten's report, based on a Bloomberg survey, economists have pushed back their expectations for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut from March to June, but still anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year. The survey shows that nearly one-third of economists express concerns about Kevin Warsh, the chairman nominee proposed by Trump. The median of the survey indicates that economists expect interest rates to be in the range of 3% to 3.25% by the end of this year.

According to Cointelegraph, macroeconomist Lyn Alden stated in the New Era Finance podcast that Bitcoin's price performance may surpass gold in the next two to three years. Alden believes that the current sentiment in the gold market is somewhat overly optimistic, while Bitcoin is unfairly viewed negatively.She pointed out that there is usually a swinging relationship between the two assets, and considering gold's recent strong rise, Bitcoin may eliminate the diminishing returns in the next cycle. The current gold fear and greed index shows a score of 72 (greed), while the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is only at 18 (extreme fear). Bitcoin is currently trading at around $71,164, down 44% from its historical high of $126,000 set in October. Alden also stated that gold and Bitcoin can rise or fall simultaneously, and she holds a cautious view on the absoluteness of their relationship.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months in the past 24 months recorded positive returns, suggesting a higher probability of a positive return turning point in any 24-month period.Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above the current level in the next 10 months is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline.The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the gains after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media interest in Bitcoin predictions has dried up, with sentiment trending neutral.

According to Cointelegraph, macroeconomist Lyn Alden stated that Bitcoin's next surge may start when overheated AI stocks peak and funds begin to rotate back into BTC.

According to Jinshi News, Investec's chief economist Philip Shaw stated that there are strong rumors in the overnight market about Waller taking over, and the related transactions were basically completed last night. Next, Waller's stance on key issues such as interest rates and the balance sheet will be evaluated. He pointed out that the U.S. fiscal situation is on an unsustainable path, and Waller's appointment does not mean that Trump will not intervene in the Federal Reserve or other areas of government operations. Although the risk of a weaker dollar has decreased after today's news was released, the risk still exists.