mizu

Сообщение ChainCatcher, аналитик Mizuho заявил, что если законопроект о структуре крипторынка США Clarity Act будет принят, хотя в целом это может быть положительным для отрасли цифровых активов, для Circle долгосрочные последствия могут быть негативными. Причина в том, что ясность регулирования привлечет больше крупных учреждений на рынок стейблкоинов, что ускорит коммерциализацию стейблкоинов и подорвет доходы USDC, принадлежащего Circle.Mizuho считает, что основное давление, с которым Circle сталкивается в последнее время, исходит от Open USD. Этот проект стейблкоина поддерживается альянсом из более чем 140 финансовых, технологических и криптокомпаний, в который входят Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock и Coinbase. В отличие от модели Circle, которая сохраняет около 38% доходов от резервов USDC, Open USD использует модель "pass-through", распределяя почти все доходы от резервов между дистрибьюторами и оставляя лишь небольшую часть на управление. Аналитики также отметили, что Coinbase, являясь крупнейшим дистрибьютором USDC и поддерживая Open USD, может получить более сильные позиции для переговоров о соглашении по распределению доходов с Circle в будущем. Переговоры о соглашении между сторонами могут быть возобновлены уже в следующем месяце.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, Mizuho понизила рейтинг Circle с нейтрального до "недостаточно хорошего" и снизила целевую цену с 85 долларов до 50 долларов, отметив, что конкурентное давление со стороны OpenUSD постоянно растет.Банк заявил, что прямая модель OpenUSD может заставить Circle делиться с партнерами по распределению большим объемом резервных доходов, что приведет к сжатию маржи прибыли. Mizuho понизила прогноз скорректированного EBITDA Circle на 2027 год до 699 миллионов долларов, что примерно на 25% ниже консенсус-прогноза Уолл-стрит, и предупредила, что предстоящая перезагрузка доходов Coinbase может увеличить давление.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно The Block, аналитики банка Mizuho отметили, что Circle получила одобрение Управления по контролю за валютой США (OCC) на создание национального трастового банка. Хотя это поможет повысить ее репутацию в области соблюдения норм, этого недостаточно для решения текущих основных проблем — продолжающегося сокращения рыночной капитализации USDC и усиливающейся конкуренции со стороны Open USD, что по-прежнему значительно сказывается на цене акций $CRCL.

The Japan Securities Clearing Corporation (JSCC), a clearing institution under the Japan Exchange Group, has partnered with Mizuho Bank, Nomura Securities, and Digital Asset to launch a proof-of-concept trial aimed at exploring the use of blockchain technology for collateral management of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs).According to a joint statement released on Monday, the trial will integrate existing systems from multiple institutions through the Canton Network to test the on-chain transfer and management of JGBs. This initiative aims to assess the feasibility of achieving real-time collateral trading while ensuring compliance with relevant financial instruments and trading laws. The trial will also investigate cross-border use cases involving clearinghouses, institutional investors, and other market participants.JSCC stated that this trial is part of a broader initiative under the Financial Services Agency's "Payment Innovation Project." As overseas markets like the United States make progress in testing similar infrastructures, advancing JGBs collateral management has become an "urgent priority." Previously, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) in the U.S. launched a pilot to tokenize U.S. Treasury securities, and South Korea is also conducting related tests.

Investment bank Mizuho stated that after acquiring the stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK, Mastercard is expected to become a "network connector" linking crypto assets with fiat currency systems, further expanding its payment ecosystem.Analysis indicates that stablecoins will not undermine Mastercard's core card payment business; instead, they will serve as an "accelerator" for its network, particularly in areas such as B2B cross-border payments, remittances, and the creator and gig economy, facilitating faster, lower-cost, 24/7 capital flow. Mizuho maintains an "outperform" rating on Mastercard and sets a target price of $666.Analysts believe that in the aforementioned emerging scenarios, the penetration rate of traditional bank cards remains relatively low, and stablecoins are expected to fill this gap, while card payments will continue to serve as the core entry point for consumers. It is reported that Mastercard has agreed to acquire BVNK for up to $1.8 billion. This transaction is seen as an important step in continuing its role as a "network connector," expanding its business into the conversion and settlement between stablecoins and fiat currencies.Against the backdrop of a gradually loosening regulatory environment and traditional payment giants like Visa and Stripe accelerating their layout in stablecoins, stablecoins are becoming an important growth direction for the global payment system.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts say that due to the Middle East conflict potentially triggering a demand for immediate liquidity, the dollar strengthened against most currencies during the Asian trading session. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Securities, stated that due to the "cash is king" mentality, the dollar may maintain buying advantages, which could be further solidified by the greater disadvantages of the euro and most other non-oil currencies.

Mizuho analysts stated that if payment company Stripe advances a potential acquisition deal for PayPal, it will help them further expand from traditional merchant payment business into the consumer market.Previously, there were reports that Stripe is considering acquiring all or part of PayPal's business. In terms of scale, the deal is feasible. Stripe's latest valuation is approximately $159 billion, significantly higher than PayPal's market value of about $43 billion. Analysts believe that PayPal's large user base and its peer-to-peer payment app Venmo will provide Stripe with strong consumer brand and user network support. Additionally, PayPal's Braintree merchant payment infrastructure may also enhance Stripe's competitiveness in the payment processing market. Analysis indicates that Braintree could bring Stripe approximately $700 billion in total payment volume (TPV), while Stripe's current annual TPV is about $1.4 trillion.

According to The Block, despite BitGo's stock price dropping on Tuesday, Mizuho Bank has given a positive outlook on the institutional-grade crypto custody platform in its first research report.Mizuho Bank analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins described BitGo as a "military-grade custodian," believing that its long-term security record and focus on institutional clients constitute a core advantage in the increasingly competitive custody market.The report noted that over 80% of BitGo's revenue comes from recurring businesses such as custody and staking, rather than volatile trading activities, which sets it apart among crypto infrastructure companies. The analysts assigned BitGo a "buy" rating with a target price of $17, implying nearly 70% upside from the current trading price of about $10.15.Mizuho Bank expects that as stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets drive institutional adoption, the company's revenue growth will accelerate. Nevertheless, BitGo's stock price has fallen about 44% since its NYSE debut at an issuance price of $18 in January, reflecting the overall cautious sentiment in the market towards crypto-related stocks.

According to Jinshi reports, the market chief of Mizuho Bank stated that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates up to 3 times this year.

Mizuho Securities has reversed its stance on Circle, upgrading the rating of CRCL stock to "Neutral" and raising its target price to $77. It stated on Wednesday that the growing popularity of the market platform Polymarket could drive the company's stock price up.Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said, "All bets on Polymarket are settled in USDC, which means that the growth of Polymarket will directly drive the growth of USDC. We expect the growth momentum of the prediction market to continue through 2026, which will translate into an increase in the market capitalization of USDC, bringing incremental revenue to Circle."

According to Jin Ten, Mizuho Securities analyst Waratan stated that the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut has significantly increased, keeping the dollar stable. However, as the likelihood of Hassett being nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman rises, the dollar exchange rate has declined. Waratan pointed out that investors are digesting the factors that Hassett could politicize the Federal Reserve, believing that the "Hassett effect" may put pressure on the dollar, and the risk of dollar depreciation remains very high.

According to market news, Mizuho Securities expressed a more pessimistic view on Circle Internet Group's stock on Friday. The investment bank's analysts lowered their benchmark target price from $84 to $70. Circle's stock traded at around $82 on Friday, down nearly 40% over the past month."We believe that CRCL's valuation fails to adequately reflect the key risks to its mid-term earnings," Mizuho analysts stated in a research report. The analysts also pointed out potential risks including "upcoming interest rate cuts, relatively stagnant USDC circulation, structurally high (and still rising) distribution costs," and increasing competition in the stablecoin space. Mizuho's forecast stands in stark contrast to that of JPMorgan analysts, who upgraded Circle's stock rating to "overweight" this week and set a new target price of $100 by December 2026.Mizuho also stated, "Given the declining interest rates, the slower-than-expected adoption of its USDC stablecoin, and the rising costs of token distribution, CRCL's consensus earnings forecasts may face downward revisions in the coming years." Mizuho's optimistic scenario target price for Circle stock is $251, while the pessimistic scenario target price is $38.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Mizuho macro observer Jordan Rochester pointed out that given the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for September, the reaction in the money market may not be as significant as imagined. The U.S. dollar index fell by less than 0.1%. The Swedish krona performed the strongest against the dollar among G10 currencies. Mizuho analysis believes that the market's short positions on the dollar have been fully established, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been fully reflected in the dollar price.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Mizuho Bank has raised the target price for Coinbase (COIN.O) to $300, up from $267.

ChainCatcher news reports that Mizuho analysts have reiterated their "Buy" rating on Robinhood (HOOD) and raised their target price from $80 to $99. Robinhood (HOOD) recently announced the launch of tokenized stock products based on Arbitrum and is building a RWA-exclusive Layer 2 network called Robinhood Chain.Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a report to clients, "The speed of Robinhood's product rollout is astonishing." He highlighted a series of significant product launches, including tokenized U.S. stocks for European customers, crypto perpetual futures with up to 3x leverage, and staking for assets like ETH and SOL in the U.S.The analyst also mentioned upcoming features such as a crypto rewards card, an Ethereum-based Layer 2 chain focused on the tokenization of real-world assets, and an AI investment assistant named Cortex. CEO Vlad Tenev stated that his company will also issue tokenized stocks for private companies OpenAI and SpaceX.

ChainCatcher news, Mizuho analysts reiterated a "Buy" rating on Robinhood (HOOD) and raised the target price from $80 to $99.Robinhood (HOOD) announced yesterday the launch of tokenized stock products based on Arbitrum and is building a RWA dedicated Layer 2 network called Robinhood Chain.

ChainCatcher news, Mizuho Securities has given Coinbase stock a "neutral" rating and lowered its target price from $280 to $217. Coinbase's stock price fell nearly 20% on Monday trading day and has dropped about 27% in the past month. However, Mizuho Securities analysts are not worried about the decline in the crypto market, as the firm previously predicted that daily spot trading volume on the Coinbase platform will reach $4.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

ChainCatcher news, Mizuho Securities has partnered with Blue Sky Solar to launch the first private placement of security token offerings (STO) for solar business.The tokenization involves the revenue of a limited liability company (LLC) related to 8 solar power generation facilities, with a total output of 9.5 megawatts, capable of providing electricity to approximately 9,000 households. This issuance utilizes BOOSTRY's iBet for Fin platform, which is Japan's second-largest digital securities blockchain network.Mizuho Securities stated that this is Japan's first tokenized infrastructure private placement fund. The token can only be transferred upon the holder's request and approval.

ChainCatcher news, according to Reuters, Mizuho Securities' Chief Japan Strategist Shoki Omori stated: "If Bitcoin is to rise further, other major cryptocurrencies should catch up first, such as Ethereum. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum looks cheap. Ripple had once surged, but we are seeing profit-taking again at the price of $2.80.Altcoins appear to be highly volatile. The cryptocurrency community is looking for positive news to drive cryptocurrency prices up across the board. As the market has already digested much of the news related to Trump, the positive factors from Trump trades are beginning to weaken."Shoki Omori added: "After the news of Atkins being nominated as SEC chairman, retail investors must be very excited to see Bitcoin's price break $100,000. The market knows that Gensler will be leaving, and someone with a less stringent attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation will take over. Of course, this does not mean that Bitcoin will rise forever, as the market will have profit-taking actions."

ChainCatcher news, according to Ledger Insights, the Singapore project Partior has completed a proof of concept for payment versus payment (PvP) settlement, with participants including JP Morgan, DBS Bank, and Mizuho Bank.PvP settlement eliminates settlement risk by simultaneously exchanging two currencies. Partior's solution supports 24/7 real-time atomic settlement and is planned to be launched later this year.