Returning to $50,000, when will BTC break the historical high?

Author: Fu Ruhe, Odaily Planet Daily

This morning, BTC broke through 50,000 USDT, reaching a new high since December 2021.

According to OKX market data, in the past 5 days, BTC rose from 43,070 USDT to a maximum of 50,380 USDT; as of the time of writing, BTC is reported at 50,062 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 0.33%.

The prices of altcoins have also generally risen in the past 5 days, with ETH rising from 2,368 USDT to over 2,686 USDT at one point, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate fluctuating between 0.05 and 0.06; SOL's price increased from 96 USDT to 114 USDT; ORDI's price also returned above 70 USDT; Ethereum layer 2 projects have also risen in tandem, with OP and ARB leading the way.

Cryptocurrency-related listed companies have also been affected by the rising market, with stock prices generally increasing by over 20% in the past week. Among them, the U.S. compliant crypto platform Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) saw its stock price rise by 3.75% today, currently at 147.31 USD; the largest Bitcoin-holding listed company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) saw its stock price rise by 11.02% today, currently at 717.52 USD, with MicroStrategy's BTC holdings now valued at over 3.5 billion USD in unrealized gains.

Due to the overall market uptrend, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed 1.9 trillion USD, with a 24-hour increase of 3.35%; the trading enthusiasm among crypto users has significantly risen, with today's fear and greed index at 79, indicating an increase in greed compared to last week, now categorized as extreme greed.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations totaling 193 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 58.14 million USD and short positions liquidated at 135 million USD; in terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC liquidations amounted to 74.90 million USD, and ETH liquidations amounted to 40.60 million USD. Currently, the nominal value of open positions for BTC options across the network is 13.62 billion USD, and for ETH options, it is 7.79 billion USD.

Reasons: Spot ETF Support + U.S. Election

After the approval of the spot ETF, Bitcoin's price once fell below 40,000 USD, raising doubts in the market about the impact of ETF accumulation. Although Grayscale has been continuously reducing its Bitcoin holdings, the other 8 spot ETFs have been increasing their positions, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF increasing its holdings by 13,163.2914 BTC in the past week, a rise of 20.29%.

Currently, the total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is approximately 32.3 billion USD, with Grayscale accounting for over 60%, but BlackRock leads in trading volume and transaction value. According to unfolded data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume accounts for 10-15% of the total Bitcoin spot trading volume on global centralized exchanges.

In addition, the upcoming U.S. election may be one of the reasons for this round of increases.

Coinbase's latest research shows that cryptocurrency users in California are expected to have a significant impact on the political direction of the state in the 2024 elections. It is reported that about 27% of adults in California (approximately 8.2 million people) own digital assets, representing a large and potentially decisive voter group in the elections.

The study also found that the vast majority support policy initiatives that encourage disruptive technologies such as blockchain and digital assets, believing they are crucial for future financial and social progress. This sentiment is expected to translate into political action, with cryptocurrency holders likely to support candidates advocating for the cryptocurrency industry and blockchain technology.

At the same time, the Democratic Party, which has generally been unfriendly towards cryptocurrencies, saw its leader Biden post a laser-eyed image on the X platform, with laser eyes being one of the symbols of the crypto world, leading to speculation that this move is sending related signals. On the other hand, Republican candidate Trump has also promoted NFTs, expressing recognition of the crypto world and even Web3.

Bitcoin Expected to Reach New Highs This Year

With Bitcoin's price returning to 50,000 USD, it has re-entered the list of the world's top ten assets. What does the future hold for Bitcoin?

First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are one of the driving factors. Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that if the labor market remains strong, it may be appropriate to gradually lower the policy interest rate; it currently seems suitable to cut rates 2-3 times this year.

This indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this year, which could boost global markets and potentially bring more "New Money" into Bitcoin and the crypto market.

Secondly, Bitcoin will undergo a halving event this April. Historically, the market price has risen during Bitcoin halving cycles, which seems to have become an unspoken consensus. During the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin's price may continue to rise.

In addition, the continuous accumulation of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the approaching expectation of Ethereum spot ETF approval may lead to a resurgence of the upward trend seen before the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

As Crypto Quant founder Ki Young Ju stated on social media, driven by ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin could reach 112,000 USD this year.

Furthermore, Grayscale indicated that although miners may sell Bitcoin after the halving to maintain their rising costs, the 9 Bitcoin spot ETF products could "serve as a hedge against selling pressure from miners," suggesting that Bitcoin ETFs may significantly absorb selling pressure, potentially reshaping Bitcoin's market structure favorably for prices by providing a stable new source of demand.

Finally, with the U.S. election approaching and the competition for votes between the Democratic and Republican parties, crypto users are sure to be a target for both sides, and they have already begun to show their influence.
Recent market price fluctuations have increased, and Odaily Planet Daily reminds that investment carries risks and should be approached with caution.