BIT

Bitcoin still has the potential to develop along the previous halving trajectory, and we expect the fourth quarter to be very bullish. According to historical data, either the low of the third quarter has already occurred, or we have one last round of decline to find Bitcoin's bottom.

Bitcoin attempted to rise yesterday but failed to break through its triangular pattern. However, with changes in election odds and a slightly favorable risk appetite environment, Bitcoin may try to rise again.

The market trend remains weak, but the risk of a sharp decline has been alleviated, and market confidence has somewhat recovered, with implied volatility across major maturities continuing to decline. The cryptocurrency market continues to maintain the wide-ranging fluctuations established since March, with ETH still remaining sluggish.

Central banks around the world are compromising, liquidity gates are opening, and Bitcoin is about to rise significantly. My Global Liquidity Momentum Composite Model (MSI) has issued a bullish signal for the first time since November 2023.

Global liquidity trends and monetary policy easing will further benefit the cryptocurrency market. Although occasional sell-offs occur, the continued support from long-term holders helps sustain the stability of Bitcoin amid market fluctuations.

The BTC market shows signs of seller dominance, and it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will decline again in the short term, potentially by around $5,000. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) no longer indicates an oversold condition, which suggests that the market may have further room to decline, consistent with the recent dominance of sellers in the $60,000 range.

In this cycle, BTC and ETH have gained structural support due to the launch of ETFs. Only after BTC and ETH break through $70,000 and $4,000 respectively will the altcoin market return.

When the U.S. government transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin rally came to an end. The trading range of $60,000 to $70,000 has remained stable, but a significant shift in this range is imminent.

The further decline of leading tech stocks may lead to a drop in Bitcoin prices, and there is evidence of a correlation between stock market performance and cryptocurrency value; as major tech stocks decline, investor sentiment typically shifts towards alternative assets, including Bitcoin.