expectations

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy recently made a small-scale sale of Bitcoin after the performance conference call in May, which the market interpreted as testing market reactions and the flexibility of capital allocation strategies.The analyst pointed out that although Strategy remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin, the success and expansion of the STRC preferred stock financing tool may take precedence in the overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company's market image of "buying only, not selling" that has lasted for nearly six years. Considering Strategy's strong market influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly rewriting market expectations.

According to Jinshi reports, due to signs of a deadlock in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, U.S. Treasury prices fell, leading to a rise in yields in the U.S. Treasury market, which amounts to $31 trillion. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by about 6 basis points, reaching nearly 4.5%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury also increased by about 6 basis points, reaching 4.07%. Traders raised their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with the swap market indicating that traders have fully priced in one rate hike by March 2027, and believe there is a 50% chance of a hike as early as October.

In mid-2026, multiple data points indicate that AI tools are generating significant hidden costs. A survey by Entelligence AI of 2,444 companies found that for every $1 spent on AI, $0.44 is used to fix vulnerabilities, $0.27 is spent on rewriting AI-generated code, and $0.11 is consumed by audit and merge delays.The 2026 report from Lightrun further notes that 43% of AI-generated code still requires manual debugging in production environments after passing quality checks, and no surveyed engineering leaders expressed complete trust in the AI outputs that have been deployed.On the infrastructure front, Oracle has accumulated approximately $108 billion in total debt and is raising another $50 billion in 2026 for AI data center construction, with free cash flow nearing negative $13 billion. Over $300 billion of its $553 billion backlog is concentrated in OpenAI, which incurred a loss of about $14 billion last year. In terms of talent, OKX CEO Stax Xu stated that AI agents have exposed employees who rely on impression management rather than outcome production while accelerating execution. The exchange has now incorporated AI proficiency into its employee evaluation system.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Musalem stated that the bond market indicates the economy is resilient, while inflation expectations are rising.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that the current inflation level is significantly above the target, and market expectations are rising.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. April PCE data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, and the market generally expects the year-on-year increase to rise to a three-year high. With the impact of energy prices not yet dissipated and inflation in the service sector remaining sticky, if the data confirms the acceleration of inflation, the Federal Reserve's return to a hawkish stance will gain strong support.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that there is currently a strong focus on changes in inflation expectations.

According to Jinshi News, Chris Turner from ING stated in a report that the prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike are increasingly strengthening, which is expected to support the dollar. Even with news of specific progress in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the dollar should not have much room for decline.He pointed out that Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned in a recent speech that if oil prices remain high, the possibility of an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out. At the same time, due to economic fragility, investors have lowered their expectations for interest rate hikes in the Eurozone and the UK.

According to Jinshi reports, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and delayed the timeline for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut, expecting the core PCE index to remain above 3%. Surveys show that economists are evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, whereas previous predictions anticipated a rate cut in October. Wilmington Trust Corp Chief Economist Luke Tilly stated that consumer spending is weak and expects the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that there are currently no signs of runaway inflation based on the inflation expectations reflected in the long-term bond market.

According to Jinshi reports, Nvidia's stock rose after hours, with its first-quarter revenue and second-quarter revenue outlook both exceeding market average expectations.

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

According to a report by Jinshi, Zaheer Anwari, an analyst at Revacy Fund, pointed out that the outlook for interest rate hikes in the U.S. supports the dollar due to high energy prices. He stated that persistent inflationary pressures have led the market to form the expectation that "interest rates will remain high for a long time." LSEG data shows that the U.S. money market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before March 2027, and the market believes there is a 62% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026.

According to Gate market data, the dollar is heading towards its best week in two months, following U.S. data showing rising inflation pressures that may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes within the next year. The dollar index DXY has risen more than 1% this week, expected to achieve its best single-week performance since mid-March. Due to two consecutive inflation data releases this week exceeding expectations, the U.S. Treasury market has been impacted, prompting a Federal Reserve official to state that the U.S. "is facing an inflation problem."

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 9 was 211,000, exceeding the market expectation of 205,000. The previous value was revised from 200,000 to 199,000.