non-farm

Báo cáo nghiên cứu của Công ty Chứng khoán Trung Tín cho biết, vào tháng 8 năm 2026, số lượng việc làm phi nông nghiệp mới ở Mỹ tăng mạnh hơn mong đợi, với sự đóng góp rõ rệt từ ngành khách sạn giải trí và chăm sóc sức khỏe, số lượng việc làm trong giáo dục của chính quyền địa phương đã phục hồi. Về cấu trúc khu vực tư nhân, ngành sản xuất hàng hóa đã tăng việc làm liên tiếp trong 6 tháng, có thể phản ánh nhu cầu xây dựng trung tâm dữ liệu ở Mỹ. Sự giảm sút số lượng việc làm trong ngành tài chính và công nghệ thông tin phản ánh tác động của trí tuệ nhân tạo.Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp trong tháng 8 duy trì ở mức 4.1%, lấy hai chữ số thập phân là 4.14%, tỷ lệ tham gia lực lượng lao động đã phục hồi từ 61.4% lên 61.6%, tỷ lệ tham gia của nhóm tuổi 45-54 vẫn cần được theo dõi do liên tục giảm. Dữ liệu phi nông nghiệp mạnh mẽ trong tháng 8 và phát biểu thiên về bồ câu của thành viên Hội đồng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Waller đã tạo ra sự đối trọng, thị trường một lần nữa định giá xác suất tăng lãi suất vào tháng 9 khoảng 60%, tiếp theo sẽ chú ý đến chỉ số CPI tháng 8 được công bố vào ngày 11 tháng 9.

According to Gate market data, on May 8, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, the S&P 500 index up 0.44%, and the Nasdaq up 0.54%. Storage concept stocks performed strongly, with Micron Technology up 5.5% and SanDisk up 4.5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.1%, with Baidu up 6%.

According to Jinshi News, Florian Ielpo from Lombard Odier Investment Managers in Switzerland believes that this is a rather "perfect" employment report. The data is stronger than expected, but not so strong as to indicate overheating, and it does not directly reflect inflationary pressures. The market's reaction has been relatively mild; in the medium term, this report is quite favorable for risk assets, especially against the backdrop of investors remaining vigilant about potential inflation risks.

According to Jinshi reports, interest rate strategist Ira Jersey recently commented that the stronger-than-expected non-farm data highlights that the U.S. is still far from recession, making it difficult to see the Federal Reserve choosing to cut interest rates in this situation. Considering that the interest rate market has basically ruled out the expectation of rate cuts, it is expected that U.S. Treasury yields will not experience significant fluctuations.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of private non-farm jobs in the U.S. for April was 123,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 75,000. The previous value was revised from 186,000 to 190,000.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, a significant decline as expected, but higher than the market expectation of an increase of 62,000.

According to Jinshi reports, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank analyst Derek Halpern stated in a report that if the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data supports a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar may decline. If the employment data is weak, coupled with a further drop in oil prices due to a potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days, it may trigger market expectations for a divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), with an expected addition of only 62,000 jobs, far below the growth rate of previous years, but enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low level of 4.3%. The annual wage inflation rate is expected to rise from 3.5% to 3.8%. In the past, when the monthly non-farm job additions in the U.S. were below 100,000, it was often seen as a signal of a weakening labor market and an economy on the brink of recession. However, the employment landscape has changed; Federal Reserve official Logan has publicly stated, "Currently, adding about 30,000 jobs per month is sufficient to achieve supply-demand balance in the labor market."According to CME FedWatch data, before the non-farm data release tonight, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all for the rest of the year is 72.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting (in June) is 5.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that although the labor market is stable, it is not ideal. Currently, the growth of non-farm payrolls is not a good indicator of the economy's idle capacity.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that not only was the employment data very good yesterday, with an increase of 178,000 jobs, but the trade deficit also decreased by 55%, marking the largest drop in history. Thanks to "Mr. Tariff."In addition, Trump posted on social media that the failing New York Times has lost its credibility and continues to launch false news attacks against your beloved president, which has led to a significant decline in its circulation. They even referred to our severely weakened and extremely unreliable "partner" NATO as the "North American Treaty Organization."The correct name is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a very interesting mistake; the hiring and education standards of the New York Times have significantly declined. Let "all news fit to print" return, and make America great again.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities believes that the better-than-expected rebound in March's non-farm data shows the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Recently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the oil supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Inflation is currently the core variable of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

According to Jin Shi reports, Carson Group's Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese stated that the latest labor data indicates that the economy is adding enough jobs to keep up with population growth.He pointed out that this will put the Federal Reserve in a more complex situation, making it meaningless to consider interest rate cuts, especially in light of the scale of the impending inflation shock. He added that the inflation issue existed before the Middle East crisis that led to soaring energy prices, and it ultimately seems that the interest rate cuts implemented last year were a mistake.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of private non-farm jobs in the U.S. for March was 186,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The previous value was revised from -86,000 to -129,000.

According to Jinshi reports, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for March were 178,000, expected to be 60,000, with the previous value revised from -92,000 to -133,000.

According to Jinshi, the US March non-farm payroll report will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs, breaking out of the previous "negative growth" spiral. Today, US stocks and international gold, silver, and oil markets are closed, but given the data's critical importance to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, it may trigger market movements next Monday. Please pay attention to the related risks.

According to Jinshi News, the US dollar is experiencing its best week in over a year, strengthening as a safe haven due to the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices. This week, the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose 1.4%, marking the largest increase since 2024. Hostilities have disrupted crude oil production, leading traders to cut bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, further boosting the dollar. Although US employers unexpectedly cut jobs last month, the focus remains on energy prices, and this data only briefly weighed on the dollar, which quickly regained its upward momentum.

According to Jinshi reports, the non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday indicated that the U.S. experienced a decrease in job positions in February, influenced by severe weather and strikes in healthcare institutions. Federal Reserve's Daly stated in an interview with CNBC that this report cannot be ignored, but it is just monthly data and does not require excessive interpretation.

According to Jinshi reports, although the recent rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflation, the disappointing non-farm payroll report has boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 3 basis points to 4.1%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury dropped by 5 basis points to 3.53%. Interest rate swaps indicate that traders are betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates a total of 44 basis points before December.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Chris Anstey stated that this week's non-farm data is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider resuming interest rate cuts. The current economic situation is completely inconsistent with the "stabilizing" description given by many officials earlier.