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QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

Viewpoint: Strategy's preferred stock debt amounts to 15 billion dollars, facing pressure to sell BTC

According to Cointelegraph, Arca Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman stated that Strategy's current approximately $15 billion preferred stock financing structure has become "unmanageable." He pointed out that these preferred stocks require about $1.5 billion in dividends each year, and with the ongoing volatility in Bitcoin prices, this structure is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.Strategy's financing model is based on the premise that "BTC will continue to rise significantly." Although the company previously alleviated short-term default risks by issuing additional shares, its decision to repurchase bonds maturing in 2029 is perplexing. He indicated that Strategy may ultimately have only two options: sell BTC to pay preferred stock dividends or stop paying dividends, both of which would have significant impacts on the company and investors.Meanwhile, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with CNBC that the company "may sell Bitcoin" at some point in the future, but overall will continue to increase its BTC holdings and enhance the amount of BTC corresponding to each share.Polymarket data shows that the market now estimates the probability of Strategy selling some BTC by the end of 2026 has risen to about 90%. As of now, Strategy holds a total of 843,738 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $63.87 billion and an average purchase price of about $75,700.

Analysis: Over the past 30 days, more than 100,000 BTC flowed into trading platforms while stablecoins accelerated outflow, increasing market selling pressure

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the inflow of BTC to trading platforms and the outflow of stablecoins from trading platforms simultaneously release a "risk aversion" signal, indicating that selling pressure in the market is increasing. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC to trading platforms over the past 30 days has shifted from an extreme net outflow of 300,000 BTC at the end of March to an inflow of 103,000 BTC, meaning more BTC is being reintroduced to trading platforms in preparation for sale. During the same period, the price of BTC dropped from $80,000 to $73,700.Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing out of centralized trading platforms at a record pace. The average net flow of stablecoins over the past 30 days has shifted from an inflow of $164 million per day at the end of April to an outflow of $153 million per day. This indicates that the liquidity available for purchasing BTC in the market is decreasing. Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that when BTC flows into exchanges while stablecoins simultaneously flow out of trading platforms, it creates an unfavorable structure of "increased supply and decreased demand," which is a typical risk aversion market condition.He believes that if the net inflow of BTC continues to exceed +100,000 BTC, the market may face a deeper correction; while stable signals would include BTC turning back to a net outflow or stablecoins flowing back into trading platforms.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Three new regulatory measures for investment accounts of mainland investors, with account opening verification retroactive to January 2023

According to a report by the Financial Associated Press, in response to the issue of "some banks in the Hong Kong region requiring a declaration to open investment accounts," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) responded today that the relevant regulatory requirements were issued to all recognized institutions on May 22.Materials provided by the HKMA indicate that registered institutions must take three additional measures when opening and managing investment accounts for mainland investors, including:Closing investment accounts opened using suspicious or forged documents, identifying customer investment accounts that have used suspicious or forged documents since January 2023 or during any other period specified by the HKMA; relevant documents include identification documents.Closing investment accounts with zero balance that have been inactive, specifically referring to investment accounts held by mainland investors that have had no asset balance as of May 22, 2026 (reference date), and have had no activity initiated by the customer in the 12 months prior to the reference date.When opening new investment accounts, obtaining a written declaration from the mainland investor confirming that all funds used to support investment activities and related settlements come from legal sources outside mainland China.Relevant documents show that the newly added additional regulatory measures apply only to investment accounts, including investment accounts within comprehensive bank accounts; non-investment functions (such as regular savings, time deposits, payments, loans, and credit cards) are not within the scope of these measures. Additionally, the applicable subjects of these additional measures are individual customers and do not apply to corporate or institutional clients.

Bitcoin has entered a high-risk zone, and the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds highlights concerns about selling pressure

The latest report from the blockchain analysis platform Swissblock shows that Bitcoin is gradually slipping into a high-risk environment, primarily due to continuous selling by institutional funds, especially driven by net outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. Historical data indicates that whenever this index signals selling pressure overwhelming the market at a structural level, it often corresponds to systematic distribution behavior by institutional funds.On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode also pointed out that since May 7, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shown net outflows almost every trading day, with institutional selling signals persisting for over two weeks. "Such continuous capital outflows are exerting pressure on the supply side of the market, while currently, there has not been sufficient buying demand to hedge against this," further exacerbating the risk of supply-demand imbalance.In the market, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure on Tuesday due to geopolitical disturbances. Reports indicated that the U.S. is implementing a new round of military strikes against Iran, despite recent progress on a peace agreement between the two sides. Bitcoin's price fell by about 1%, briefly dipping from above $77,000 to around $76,500, but overall it still maintained a range-bound pattern for nearly four months.CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko stated that although geopolitical events may trigger short-term volatility, the market focus may still lean towards potential reconciliation progress between the U.S. and Iran, with the overall cryptocurrency market "still in a wait-and-see state." In summary, the current Bitcoin market faces dual pressures: on one hand, the continuous outflow of spot ETF funds has weakened key buying support; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has amplified short-term volatility risks. If institutional risk appetite does not improve marginally, the risk index may rise further, necessitating caution against the adjustment pressure brought by technical selling and emotional resonance.

Analysis: The net inflow to trading platforms and the outflow of ETFs have created a potential selling pressure of 34,000 BTC. Bitcoin still needs spot buying support if it is to challenge the $80,000 mark

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that although BTC recently regained the $77,000 level, the net inflow to trading platforms and the continuous outflow from spot ETFs still exert localized selling pressure on the market. Data shows that in the past week, the net inflow of BTC to exchanges was about 18,000 BTC, indicating that more BTC is being transferred to trading platforms in preparation for selling. At the same time, the net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period was about 16,000 BTC. The combined data creates a potential selling pressure of approximately 34,000 BTC.Glassnode data also shows that the daily trading volume of spot BTC ETFs has fallen below $20 billion, having once exceeded $50 billion by the end of 2025, reflecting a cooling of speculative demand from traditional financial channels. However, market sentiment has recently warmed due to improved expectations for a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. BTC quickly rebounded to around $77,800 after dropping below $75,000.Derivatives data indicates that this round of price increase was mainly driven by short covering. The total open interest (OI) of BTC slightly rebounded from about 268,000 BTC to 250,000 BTC, and the funding rate also cooled down, indicating a decrease in the crowding of leveraged long positions. Analysts believe that if BTC wants to further challenge the $80,000 mark, it still needs both spot demand and open interest to grow in sync.
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