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分析:比特幣 6 至 7 萬美元為深熊價格區間,50% 籌碼將處於浮虧

2025-11-20 17:33:38

ChainCatcher 消息,鏈上數據分析師 Murphy 表示,比特幣 PSIP(盈利供應百分比)用於觀察市場樂觀和恐慌程度,7 日均值已低於 70%。歷史經驗表明,過往週期牛轉熊的首次下跌通常觸及此位置,然後出現情緒極端受壓後的反彈。每當 PSIP 低於 50% 時,將迎來大週期的深熊時刻,同時也是性價比最高,最值得買入的價格區間。

當前 BTC 價格維持在 9.2 萬美元,UPPD 數據顯示 670 萬枚 BTC 處於浮虧狀態,占總流通的 33%。假設低位籌碼都不再賣出,那麼當價格跌至 59,000 美元時,將出現 974.4 萬枚 BTC 變為套牢籌碼,此時 PSIP 正好為 50% 左右。因 PSIP 持續處於動態,作為靜態數值評估僅代表大致範圍,根據經驗若當 BTC 進入 6 至 7 萬美元區間內,PSIP 將大概率降至 50% 以下,即進入深熊階段。

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