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分析師:比特幣短期持有者整體虧損占比升至 73%,套牢盤或持續壓制反彈

2026-11-15 13:07:00

ChainCatcher 消息,加密分析師 Murphy 發文稱,比特幣本輪回調已將短期持有者的虧損籌碼占比(STH-PSIL)推高至 73%。作為對比,上輪在加息與傳統銀行業危機疊加的背景下,該指標在第一輪回調時為 51%,第二輪升至 67%。

Murphy 將本輪走勢稱為"天坑開局",認為其與 2019 年至 2020 年的行情有些相似。2019 年第一輪回調中,該指標一度升至 97%,此後市場花了約一年才走出低迷。Murphy 認為,當前沒有必要過度悲觀,但投資者信心已受損,上方大量套牢籌碼可能在價格反彈至關鍵位置時持續形成賣壓,本輪修復難度或高於 2019 年。他表示,自己在 2 月至 6 月重倉買入 BTC,儘管當前價格已接近其持倉成本,仍沒有賣出打算。

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