After following Musk's Twitter for 5 months, I have analyzed the market changes of Bitcoin and Dogecoin after each of his calls

This article is from Rhythm BlockBeats.

When Tesla founder Elon Musk mentioned cryptocurrency again on Twitter, causing significant market fluctuations, the market finally couldn't take it anymore.

Musk's tweets have been criticized by many investors in the industry, accusing him of "using his influence to manipulate the secondary market" and "profiting for himself," among other things.

What kind of person Musk is can be set aside for now, but as a speculator, what is more concerning is how Musk's statements affect the market? Is his influence still as strong as before?

To this end, Rhythm BlockBeats combed through about 3,000 tweets from Musk over the past five months and compiled the following data:

Rhythm Note: This article will calculate based on the time Elon Musk tweeted, with the calculation time frame being 24 hours after the tweet. If multiple tweets are made in one day, the earliest tweet will be used for calculation.

Bitcoin: Mentioned 13 times, maximum increase of 22.74%

Musk mentioned Bitcoin a total of 13 times, with Bitcoin closing up on the same day 4 times and closing down 4 times (with multiple tweets on some days).

Bitcoin market trend from the end of January to now, with red arrows indicating the dates Musk's tweets mentioned Bitcoin

Rhythm compiled the times Musk tweeted about Bitcoin and calculated the maximum price fluctuations of Bitcoin within 24 hours after the tweet, resulting in the following table:

From the maximum increase of Bitcoin, it can be seen that Musk's positive feedback influence on Bitcoin is weakening. In the first two instances, Bitcoin only rose without falling, and the increases were both greater than 10%. Subsequently, Musk's tweets had only short-lived effects on Bitcoin's price. It is worth noting that, except for May 13 and May 17, other times Musk's messages about Bitcoin were generally positive.

In terms of timing, Musk's effect of driving up Bitcoin is weakening, while the effect of driving it down is strengthening. Of course, the reasons may not be related to his calls. Over the past six months, Musk first bought Bitcoin in the name of Tesla and then announced that users could purchase Tesla electric cars with Bitcoin. Market expectations for Musk and Tesla are gradually declining.

After Musk bought a large amount of Bitcoin, the market became concerned that his selling would trigger a new wave of sell-offs. Therefore, this could also be one of the reasons for Bitcoin's sharp decline after Musk's recent two tweets expressing a bearish outlook on Bitcoin.

Dogecoin: Mentioned 27 times, maximum increase of 132.74%

In the past six months, Musk explicitly mentioned Dogecoin a total of 27 times on Twitter (excluding replies and emojis). On the days he mentioned it, Dogecoin closed up 11 times and down 8 times (with multiple tweets on some days).

Dogecoin market trend from January to now, with red arrows indicating the dates Musk's tweets mentioned Dogecoin

Rhythm compiled the times Musk tweeted about Dogecoin and calculated the maximum price fluctuations of Dogecoin within 24 hours after the tweet, resulting in the following table:

Unlike Bitcoin, the data shows that Dogecoin is more speculative. After Musk's tweets about Dogecoin, there were varying degrees of increases, with an average increase of 21.13%. Moreover, the highest increase within 24 hours typically occurred shortly after Musk's tweets.

To this end, Rhythm organized the relationship between the time (in minutes) required for Dogecoin's price to reach its 24-hour high after Musk's tweets and the corresponding increase:

The data indicates that within 20 minutes after Musk's tweet, in 50% of cases, Dogecoin's price peaked shortly thereafter. This suggests that the market is more likely to engage in short-term speculation in response to Musk's announcements. With the advancement of technology and the rise of high-frequency trading, it is not technically difficult to monitor Musk's Twitter activity in real-time and quickly drive up coin prices.

By comparing Musk's information related to cryptocurrency and the prices of cryptocurrencies, it can be seen that Musk's influence on Bitcoin's price is declining; for Dogecoin, Musk can influence short-term prices. Based on past price fluctuations, buying immediately after Musk tweets about Dogecoin and selling a few minutes later can yield profits, provided that your speed is faster than that of the bots.