Data Analysis of Moonbirds: Factors Behind the Surge in Floor Price
The emergence of Moonbirds has brought new vitality to the NFT market, which has been lacking in recent hot topics, and this wave has also prompted us to think about new paradigms for future NFT releases.Author: NFTGo
Key Takeaway
From April 16 to 18, Moonbirds accounted for 25% of the total NFT trading market, accompanied by a rapid increase in Moonbirds prices, a good order rate, and high participation from whales.
Currently, Pass+PFP projects are becoming a new trend, as projects can consolidate their floor prices by creating diamond hands. In the future, the tiered structure of the NFT market will become more pronounced.
As of April 19, the average holding per address was 1.5 Moonbirds, with a high degree of distribution. Among the top 10 holders, 5 are marked as whales.
Leading projects can grasp market rhythms through the case of "lowering community entry barriers → acquiring more users → capturing the market," combined with various phased gameplay such as staking and incubation, thus experiencing periodic increases.
Surge in Moonbirds Trading Volume
Compared to the previous week, the NFT market trading volume has seen a significant rebound in the past two days.
Recent two weeks NFT trading volume trend;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.18
On April 16, the day of Moonbirds' release, the project's trading volume accounted for nearly half of the total NFT market trading volume. Although Moonbirds trading volume began to gradually decrease over the next two days, it still accounted for one-fifth of the entire NFT market trading volume on April 18.
Comparison of Moonbirds trading volume with total NFT trading volume;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.18
At the same time, Moonbirds broke the single-day trading volume record for NFTs, with its trading volume far exceeding that of a single blue-chip NFT within seven days after its release. As of the date of this article, Moonbirds' market cap ranking rose to ninth. From both the project background and market performance, Moonbirds can be regarded as a phenomenal new blue-chip.
Moonbirds Project Analysis: Creating Diamond Hands
As of April 19, the number of wallets holding Moonbirds was 6,634, with a high degree of NFT distribution, as each address holds an average of only 1.5 Moonbirds, and 5 of the top 10 holders are marked as whales.
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
From the holder trend chart, whales have played a driving role in the price increase of Moonbirds. We can see that after the sale ended on April 16, there was a slight decrease in the number of NFT holders, but the number of whales continued to grow.
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
From the trading data, since the end of the Moonbirds sale, 92.8% of holders have not sold within 24 hours, and the number of holders has entered a stable trend, while the number of traders has decreased exponentially. These data indicate that the vast majority of buyers intend to hold rather than sell immediately.
The consensus among Moonbirds holders has been reached more quickly, as reflected in the chart below, where Moonbirds' liquidity and trading volume quickly fluctuated to stability after the release. In comparison, the right chart shows other projects released simultaneously, where the fluctuation time is longer and the amplitude is larger, indicating that it takes longer for holders of those projects to reach consensus than for Moonbirds.
Trading liquidity trend chart (left is Moonbirds);
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
On-chain data situation;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
From the holding situation, it can be seen that the vast majority of people choose to continue holding rather than selling immediately, especially considering the mint cost of 2.5E, indicating that holders have a strong consensus. To some extent, the high mint cost of Moonbirds also serves as a "filter" for holders, and the nesting model provides a reason for long-term holding.
Moonbirds' mint price soared from 2.5E to around 17E. According to user profile metrics, the highest profit wallet's PnL reached $1,201,686.11 in just a few days. Among all Moonbirds that have been traded, the highest profit NFT is #7473, which brought a profit of 60E to its trader.
Moonbirds highest profit user profile;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
Top ten Moonbirds with the highest profits;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
It is worth mentioning that Ryan Carson, the Chief Operating Officer of Proof.xyz, has been trying to maintain the strong momentum of Moonbirds through various mechanisms.
Some people point out that this way, people lose the possibility of manipulating the floor price. The fact is that Moonbirds is creating a diamond hands mechanism, transforming NFTs from mere profit tools into symbols of identity and belief. While those with WL can quickly profit by flipping NFTs, the project team believes they should become early believers and long-term holders of the project. Perhaps the new mechanisms in Moonbirds will drive the NFT ecosystem to mature from the speculation phase. In the near future, the market may seek new ways to lock in early investors' NFTs to prevent rapid flipping.
Driving Value of PROOF Collective
One of the supporting values behind Moonbirds is PROOF Collective. Based on Moonbirds' official Twitter, after conveying its first project information to the NFT market on March 19, the official account quickly retweeted a related tweet from PROOF Collective community founder Kevin Rose on the 23rd, and held a Twitter Space on the 25th to release key follow-up information about the Moonbirds project: the minting final date was set for April 16, and the minting day would adopt a Dutch auction method lasting 6 hours (starting at 2.5E). Moonbirds holders would unlock:
- PROOF community internal channel permissions
- PROOF community subsequent airdrop eligibility
- Moonbirds IP's secondary creation eligibility
- Early bird qualifications and discounts in PROOF community benefits, and each PROOF Collective holder automatically qualifies for two free minting of Moonbirds!
Market cap increase of PROOF Collective before Moonbirds release;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
According to the chart below, the floor price of PROOF Collective experienced a significant trading consolidation period after early February, maintaining fluctuations around 30ETH. After the official announcement of the confirmed PROOF collaboration information on March 21, there was only about a two-day calm period before market buy orders began to appear on March 23. During the subsequent two-week peak trading period, 9 whale addresses purchased PROOF and actively promoted the PROOF community on Twitter. The corresponding increase in PROOF's market cap also reflects the buyers' confidence in the Moonbirds PFP project, ultimately reaching an 85ETH floor price before Moonbirds confirmed its release date.
It can be seen that traders and whales who paid attention early had already shifted their focus to the linkage information between Moonbirds and the PROOF community. Once the official relationship was confirmed, they immediately entered the purchasing phase and patiently awaited the future value growth of their PROOF Pass.
PROOF Collective floor price changes;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
"PASS+PFP" Projects May Become a New Trend
"Shovel" projects generally refer to those where the project team first issues the first generation of NFTs, and when releasing subsequent NFTs, they give priority rights to the first generation NFT holders, at which point the first generation NFT is referred to as the "shovel." For example, the proof collective & moonbirds Pass+PFP model is a common "shovel" combination.
The PROOF x Moonbirds linkage system has successfully ignited recent market hotspots, and the market share occupied by "shovel" projects is gradually expanding. After successfully incubating the Muri and Niwa projects, Haus has climbed from the bottom floor price of around 1.2ETH in early January, indicating that the value of its PASS has gradually been recognized by the market.
hausphases by Haus floor price changes;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
In addition, projects like Project Nanopass, 0xstudio, Crypto Package Goods, and Quantum Keys have also announced their mint pass empowerment for subsequent incubation project direct minting qualifications. The establishment of such project ecosystems and systems may significantly increase the interactivity between projects in the future NFT market, thereby reducing the risk trend of many projects gradually approaching zero.
"Shovel" Phenomenon May Make NFT Project Layering More Obvious
In a sluggish market, projects created by capable and endorsed teams can more quickly capture the existing market, attracting funds from outside and continuously drawing users from other projects.
BAYC historical price trend;
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
For established blue-chip NFTs, there is little room for price decline. This is because, after experiencing a long cycle, the price trends of these projects become clearer, and their support levels are more solid after multiple tests (as shown in the BAYC trend), so in a bear market, people are willing to buy projects like BAYC at low prices. Conversely, younger projects that may be on the verge of becoming new blue chips may be temporarily impacted by the sudden popularity of new projects. When the market size is low, the mutual flow of existing funds can lead to a more brutal survival of the fittest among project teams.
This survival of the fittest is reflected in the specific actions of secondary blue-chip NFT projects, such as Azuki utilizing the ERC1155 protocol to split NFTs into smaller fragments to increase liquidity. A specific event: Azuki #40 was split into many Bobu fragments for secondary sale, causing an increase in Azuki's market cap.
Market cap linkage (top is Bobu, bottom is Azuki);
Data source: NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19
Similarly, this time Moonbirds is still an additional project of the well-known PROOF Collective, continuing the path of PROOF Collective in NFT empowerment, team, and even contract code, thus Moonbirds also benefits the market cap of PROOF Collective.
The leading project teams can grasp market rhythms through the case of "lowering community entry barriers → acquiring more users → capturing the market," combined with various phased gameplay such as staking and incubation, thus experiencing periodic increases. In contrast, general teams, lacking technical support and previous projects as endorsements, find it difficult to carry out operations such as secondary project issuance and NFT fragmentation sales to enhance project sustainability and liquidity, making them more likely to "fall" in a cycle of bull and bear markets.
Conclusion
The emergence of Moonbirds has brought new blood to the NFT market, which has recently lacked hotspots. This wave also prompts us to think about the new paradigm of NFT issuance: the "shovel" model represented by Pass+PFP may be becoming a new trend, and this trend may also make the head resource effect and community drive in the NFT world more pronounced.
