Starknet super airdrop lands, what will be the subsequent impact?

Author: Haotian

Editor's note: On February 14, the Ethereum Layer 2 network Starknet announced the airdrop details for its token STRK. The first round of token distribution will allow approximately 1.3 million wallets to qualify for STRK tokens, starting from February 20, users can claim the STRK airdrop, which will last for four months until June 20. This STRK airdrop is the broadest personal token distribution to date, and Starknet is also the first L2 project to distribute tokens to independent Ethereum stakers, Ethereum LSD holders, and non-Web3 developers. What impact and changes will this airdrop bring to the Layer 2 landscape? Crypto researcher Haotian shared his thoughts on X, and BlockBeats has compiled the full text as follows:

In the past few days, @Starknet has launched a super airdrop action targeting 1.3 million addresses with a total of over 700 million tokens, almost "spreading the wealth" to every participant in the ecosystem, which is quite impressive! So, how should we view the subsequent impact of this Starknet airdrop feast? Here are my thoughts:

1) The standards, scale, and coverage of Starknet's airdrop have always been shrouded in mystery, with various rumors and speculations circulating. Many even thought they would be collectively "rugged." Against this backdrop, the sudden announcement of over 1.3 million addresses and 700 million STRK tokens as eligible has surely delighted many.

To be honest, as a highly anticipated project, the design of Starknet's airdrop standards is indeed challenging. It needs to balance the interests of all parties while avoiding the selling pressure from the airdrop overshadowing the incentive effects, making it difficult to achieve a universally satisfactory outcome. Ultimately, Starknet chose to bestow a large-scale benefit to early contributors to ECMP, open-source developers on GitHub, Starknet users, and others.

This is likely also the final choice for focal projects like zkSync and LayerZero. When brand influence reaches a certain level, a broad airdrop action is the wisest approach. The difference lies in which "farmers" will be filtered out based on what criteria, and which direction will become the preferred target for the project team. For instance, Starknet clearly favors developers and early ECMP contributors. The "farming" business at most increases risks, loses cost-effectiveness, and will continue to roll on.

2) Previously, I mentioned that Starknet's airdrop is a "redemption action." The reason is that ZK series Layer 2 projects have long remained in the narrative stage of technical advantages, with comprehensive data indicators such as developer resources, ecosystem projects, market TVL, user numbers, and user experience falling far short of expectations. In this context, rolling out Tokenomics is more aimed at further building and strengthening the ecological market. Clearly, both Starknet and zkSync are anxious about this.

Especially since the overall locked value of Layer 2 has exceeded 25.5 billion, while the top 5 Layer 2 projects in terms of brand reputation account for less than 0.2 billion. How can such data instill confidence in subsequent secondary market investors? Issuing tokens to subsidize developers and users can quickly compensate for this shortcoming. If you don't believe it, just look at Blast, which has exceeded 1.8 billion in TVL without any technical landing.

I personally tend to believe that Tokenomics will provide continuous driving force for the underperforming ZK ecosystem, especially with STRK participating in project development and user interaction experience as a gas fee subsidy, the potential is quite large.

3) The Cancun upgrade has significantly more uplifting significance for the ZK-Rollup market than for OP-Rollup. If the Cancun upgrade is a bonus for OP-Rollup, then it is certainly a timely help for ZK-Rollup. The reason has been analyzed before: with the same Blob block capacity, ZK series Layer 2 can amplify the TPS limit of Layer 2, thereby reducing the average gas cost. Coupled with the potential arrival of a gas subsidy war, theoretically, more developers and users will flock to the ZK ecosystem to build. Under normal circumstances, the Cancun upgrade will be a turning point for the ZK ecosystem to comprehensively surpass and counterattack OP.

Starknet's launch of Tokenomics ahead of the Cancun upgrade undoubtedly expresses its determination to fight back after the upgrade. If Starknet's token economics work, it will inevitably promote the subsequent issuance of tokens for ZK projects like zkSync, Scroll, and Linea. Moreover, the potential of ZK technology ultimately relies on being driven by "applications." The market needs a few blockbuster applications, such as games, to drive further prosperity in the Starknet market ecosystem.

4) The current competitive landscape of Layer 2 has become complex and intense. In the past, Layer projects represented by Arbitrum, Starknet, and zkSync, which had first-mover advantages in technology and brand reputation, have borne significant pressure regarding landing expectations. Meanwhile, the Stack strategic approach still follows the traditional To B VC narrative, which is evidently insufficient to attract secondary market investors.

At the same time, a large number of new challengers have emerged, attempting to break the Layer 2 pattern. For instance, Metis is trying to overtake with a decentralized sequencer and a native token economy, while Manta, ZKFair, Blast, and others are attempting to leverage market, operations, and capital to rise to the top.

Additionally, there are Celestia, Altlayer, Espresso, and others continuously adding new variables to the Layer 2 market with modular thinking. The current Layer 2 market can no longer rely on established advantages such as technical strength and capital background to secure market position. In the face of repeated market shocks and competitive landscapes, the projects that ultimately survive will be those Layer 2 projects with balanced comprehensive strength. Within a year after the Cancun upgrade, market competition will intensify, and perhaps new Layer 2 kings will emerge.

Note: I am fortunate to have received the ECMP airdrop, which serves as an incentive for my continuous output of valuable content. Anyway, everyone should have more confidence and expectations for the Layer 2 market.