VC Airdrop Probability Theory: Which VC-invested projects have the highest probability of issuing airdrops?

Author: defizard

Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

What do L0, zkSync, and Starknet have in common?

They have the same investors. If these venture capitalists invest in the project - then the project is guaranteed to have an airdrop.

a16z

• Number of investments: 169.

• Projects with airdrops: 15.

• Farcaster, EigenLayer, Worldcoin, LayerZero, zkSync, Uniswap, Sui, Aptos, Optimism, Goldfinch, Ape, dYdX, Forta, Gitcoin.

• Airdrop ratio: 8.87%.

Paradigm

• Number of investments: 92.

• Projects with airdrops: 10.

• Uniswap, Farcaster, Friend Tech, Optimism, dYdX, Osmosis, Blur, Ribbon Finance, Gitcoin, Starknet.

• Airdrop ratio: 10.86%.

Binance Labs

• Number of investments: 216.

• Projects with airdrops: 19.

• Aptos, 1inch, Biconomy, Axelar, Space ID, Maverick, Galxe, Mint Club, Aevo, Bounce Bit, Renzo Protocol, Ethena, Arkham, Polyhedra, Sui, Hooked Protocol, Magic Square, Fusionist, Celestia.

• Airdrop ratio: 8.79%.

Coinbase Ventures

• Number of investments: 394.

• Projects with airdrops: 25.

• Uniswap, Aptos, Arbitrum, Optimism, TheGraph, IMX, Sei, Ribbon, Worldcoin, Biconomy, Hashflow, Arkham, Maverick, Galxe, Evmos, Goldfinch, Forta, Umee, Connext, Hop, Axelar, Wormhole, Maverick, Arkham, EigenLayer.

• Airdrop ratio: 6.34%

DragonFly Capital

• Number of investments: 149.

• Projects with airdrops: 25.

• Aptos, dYdX, 1inch, Ribbon Finance, Axelar, Hashflow, Galxe, Avail, Ethena, zkSync, Parcl.

• Airdrop rate: 7.38%.

HashKey Capital

• Number of investments: 236.

• Projects with airdrops: 8.

• dYdX, 1inch, Galxe, Evmos, Avail, Polyhedra, Beoble, Aethir.

• Airdrop ratio: 3.38%.

When I started this tweet, I thought the statistics would be better. I got all the data from @CryptoRank_io and used the "number of investments" category as an overall metric, that is, the total number of investments.

For every venture capital firm mentioned in this topic, I am confident that the projects they invested in will have airdrops, such as Monad, Babylon, or Symbiotic.

But we cannot guarantee that if some of these venture capitalists invest in the project you are working on, they will conduct an airdrop.

You should look at the tokenomics, development stage, whitepaper, team, venture capitalists, rumors, etc., to understand if there is a chance of an airdrop.

It's not difficult; you just need some basic knowledge and luck.