Exclusive Interview with Arthur Hayes: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan is Impossible, the U.S. Government Will Buy Gold First

Original Title: Arthur Hayes talks election and Bitcoin: "Trump or Harris, it doesn't matter"

Author: Trista Kelley, DL News

Translation: Ismay, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: Arthur Hayes delves into the current state and future direction of the cryptocurrency space, analyzing how Trump and his policy inclinations might impact the cryptocurrency sector, emphasizing how different political leaders affect the future development of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the impact of large financial institutions like BlackRock entering the crypto market, suggesting that whether the cryptocurrency market can maintain its original intent and avoid leaning towards the centralization of the traditional financial system is a question worth paying attention to. Additionally, Hayes expresses high expectations for the future price of Bitcoin, believing that the dramatic changes in the global monetary system will significantly boost Bitcoin's value.

Arthur Hayes's first job was in the trading floor of Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. The day he started working in September 2008, Lehman Brothers announced its bankruptcy. He was 22 years old at the time.

Those adrenaline-fueled trading days and million-dollar bonuses came to an abrupt end.

Young traders like Hayes, who had a risk-taking appetite, were swept away by the impact of regulation, compliance departments, and a dull office culture.

Then he discovered cryptocurrency.

He told DL News, "When I read the Bitcoin white paper, it really resonated with my inner philosophy—like the corrupt banking system and how ridiculous it is."

Fast forward ten years—this process includes co-founding the BitMEX cryptocurrency trading platform and achieving billionaire status, along with a guilty plea and probation in the U.S.—the crypto industry is starting to resemble the banking sector he left behind.

Financial giants, including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, now offer retail investors low-cost, secure ways to invest in cryptocurrencies.

Fidelity Investments hopes to include Bitcoin in U.S. pension plans.

Hayes states that this is still an old industry.

"It still maintains a truly diverse group atmosphere, with people from all over the world, either from finance or tech. What they want is something different," Hayes said last week in his Singapore office.

"What they want is something with unlimited upside potential, obviously super volatile, and if you're not diligent enough, you'll be quickly eliminated. But at least there's the ability to generate extreme product usage or extreme wealth."

Hayes has the credibility of a cryptocurrency veteran.

He has also become one of the most prolific and widely followed market commentators, covering cryptocurrencies and other areas.

Hayes spoke with DL News before Monday's market crash, discussing elections, the financial industry's acceptance of cryptocurrencies, and his views on Bitcoin's price.

On the Election:

AH: They think Trump is right, so he will make things happen faster. It doesn't matter whether it's Trump or Harris.

DLN: Why?

AH: Yes, cryptocurrency has donated a lot of money. But I think your donations haven't reached the level of companies like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, or Goldman Sachs.

And if you think about who works at these institutions, it's all people from those banks.

So, while it would be great if Trump were elected and he did all these things, I think he might face the same problems he encountered during his first term.

You can say all the good things and try all these policies, but if the entire government apparatus is against them, then nothing will get done.

On Bitcoin and Monetary Policy:

AH: Whether it's the Trump administration or the Harris administration, they will print money. Their methods may differ, but money will still be printed.

So your cryptocurrency prices will go up—this path may be very winding, but ultimately, we know where it will go.

On SEC Chairman Gary Gensler

DLN: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to be a big villain in the industry. Do you resonate with these views?

AH: People confuse symptoms with problems. You can listen to his lectures; he's a very smart guy. But when he's in government office, he's completely foolish.

It's just politics. You could replace him with someone else. Gary Gensler is not the problem, and the SEC is not the problem.

Firing Gary Gensler won't change anything if the series of regulations you were unhappy with still exists because your elected representatives choose to consider other things instead of creating a framework for cryptocurrencies.

People are making a big deal out of Gary Gensler, but he actually doesn't matter.

On the Bitcoin Reserve Plan

AH: Even if Trump is elected, I think it's almost impossible to accomplish.

You need a certain number of people to vote in favor of this plan if it will negatively impact the visibility of the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve or maintain the U.S. financial markets.

DLN: Even if this plan can't be realized, do you think it's a good idea?

AH: Oh, it's a good idea. The U.S. should weaken the dollar at the end of the day and buy Bitcoin and gold, which would solve many of their problems.

They would weaken the dollar, and the value of Bitcoin and gold would rise.

Do I think the U.S. government will actively try to acquire Bitcoin?

I'm skeptical; they would buy gold first before buying Bitcoin.

But it's the same deal, and it's the same motivation for us to do this.

On BlackRock's Entry into Cryptocurrency

AH: The whole point of cryptocurrency is that there are no entry barriers.

An institution like BlackRock should be able to use Bitcoin, and people in the Philippines without financial services should also be able to use cryptocurrency.

Is the incentive structure strong enough? Is the game theory behind how blockchain works and all these things enough to ensure that centralization doesn't happen—if it does, will there be corresponding consequences?

I've written about similar things, like they would take all the Bitcoin and make the network rigid, and things like that, right?

Theoretically, yes, that could happen, but it still remains an open competitive market.

If you have a BlackRock product, what you have is a cryptocurrency derivative, not the actual cryptocurrency—BlackRock owns your cryptocurrency.

Therefore, BlackRock's product is a sexy product for people because it's simple, but it's also not cryptocurrency.

On the Price of Bitcoin

AH: The price of Bitcoin in this cycle will be very, very high. It could reach hundreds of thousands of dollars, even a million dollars.

There is so much debt that needs to be converted, and we are entering a period of complete change in the global monetary system.

We don't know what it will become, but those who have benefited the most in the past 80 years will strongly resist change.